The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Wheat Creeps Higher in the Overnight
Aug 29, 2014
This morning soybeans and wheat are trading higher up 2 ¼ penny and 5 cents respectively. Corn is trading down 1 ¼ cents this morning. The U.S dollar index is in a consolidation pattern after making a sharp move higher between the 18th and the 26th.
The white house spoke last night and mentioned that "We are not taking military action to solve the Ukrainian problem" and that the "ongoing incursion into Ukraine by Russia will only lead to additional costs for Moscow." With that being said, we can expect further sanctions by the west to be levied onto Russia. Over the last four days wheat has been able to rise to the top side of the range it has been trading in since early July. However, without a major disruption in the physical movement of grain out of Ukraine it is unlikely that wheat will be able to make any sort of meaningful rally.
Next week’s weather forecast will provide ample moisture to finish off crops in the fill stage of development with precipitation amounts of 2-6 inches covering eastern Nebraska, Iowa, Southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. The 16-30 day forecast did trend cooler for the northwest Midwest and needs to be watched for frost risk in late developing fields. For now frost risk is still very low, and there is no freeze expected in the Midwest next week.
This year excess precipitation during wheat harvest has been the global theme with the latest reports of this out of Bueno Aires. The precipitation in central and southeast Buenos Aires province, an area that makes up 18% of the planted area, is likely to suffer substantial losses due to excessive rains. Last week the exchange cut its estimated wheat acreage by 247,000 acres due to excessive rain in the region.