The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Wheat Tour Finding Poor Yield Potential
Apr 30, 2014
Grains were weaker overnight giving up 5 cents a bushel across the board in night trading.
In wheat, the first day of the Kansas Wheat Tour turned up below normal yields. The forecast for the first day was 34.7 bushels per acre compared to 43.8 last year and the five-year average of 43.8. Scouts sampled 271 fields on Tuesday. Today scouts will cross southwestern Kansas, from Colby to Wichita. An initial report this morning showed a 22.9 bushel field in Scott County where the soil is powdery dry. The tour is scheduled to release a final Kansas yield forecast on Thursday. Tour leaders have warned that the crop is still behind in maturity and in northern parts of the state rains in the next couple of weeks could help boost crop potential.
In corn, widespread rain over the past 24 hours will likely slow corn planting in the Midwest. Parts of the Upper Midwest, Illinois & Ohio received an inch or more in the past 24 hours. Looking ahead to the 6 to 10 day forecast, rain is expected over a wide swath of the Midwest which could further hamper the planting pace. At this point planting delays won’t be a big market mover but as we get into May, the trade could get excited by ongoing planting problems.
In beans, domestic soybean basis continues to be strong as buyers face a tight US supply situation. Heavy hog finishing weights are said to be increasing demand for soymeal. With pipeline stocks at minimal levels, this could suggest further upside for old-crop bean prices, but a better supply situation for new-crop could take out the rally. Picking the actual day and price when traders shift from 2013 news to 2014 news will be the difficult task in trading beans this year.