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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybean bulls continue to talk about lack of rainfall in many key growing regions; fears of an early frost; thoughts of a 500,000 to 750,000 acreage reduction; yields shrinking rather than getting larger... The bottom-line is the soybean story is simply much sexier than either corn or wheat right now. We all know supplies are extremely tight in old-crop, and new-crop remains well behind schedule, in other words not yet showing up to save the day. In fact most traders are now thinking if the US doesn't produce a 42 (plus) type yield we could be chewing on another record tight supply story. With fears of shortage still circulating prices are unlikely to break. As the $13 price range is now just a few steps away, I have to imagine many producers are getting one finger on the trigger. The target will be moving quickly so make certain you are prepared to execute (locking in profitability) when your goals are reached. I am afraid if the weather story doesn't play out, US bean prices could be significantly lower as we head into 2014. For the time being however US production remains a question mark and price premium is being added accordingly.
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Not much selling in our area beans have to far to go, and it's geting drier as we speak. We don't need a frost until mid October, and we need rain ASAP.