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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans bounce off the bottom, but more than likely will continue their "downhill slide." Yes, soymeal remains in heavy demand, and until new-crop bushels are both harvested and delivered, the front month (SEP14) contract is going to remain extremely volatile. The weather forecasters are now thinking the latest tropical storm will miss the Gulf which should ultimately allow the harvest down south (through the Delta) to gain more traction. From where I sit, it's only a matter of time until there is NO old-crop soybean story for the bulls to grasp on to. This will eventually leave more and more in the trade with nothing to focus on but new-crop production. As of right now most seem to be on the same page, thinking that we have not only planted record acreage but could soon harvest a record yield. I still keep hearing many of my top soybean sources penciling in a 46 to 48 bushel yield estimate. I can't stress enough, if this happens to be the case and plays itself out, new-crop soybeans have the potential to trade down to the $8.50 area. Obviously, good finishing weather will be needed to push yields past 46 bushels per acre, but what if the weather cooperates? Are we really sure we fully understand the potential of these new traits and genetics? I'm telling you now, the past three to four years almost every producer I have spoken with (hundreds and hundreds) underestimated their soybean yields. As far as that goes, it appears the USDA did the same thing with this past crop. All I'm saying is with this many beans having been planted and the weather as a whole being extremely cooperative, the surprise could be a blowout type number to the up-side. Yes, there is still the chance for some type of early freeze or other unforeseen weather event, and I'm sure someone will want to argue the case. Just remember, as each day passes our odds of getting that "one card" becomes less and less. CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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