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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn exports continue to impress and several sources are now thinking the USDA will be forced to bump their demand estimates higher in next Monday's Feb USDA report. Some bulls thinking US exports could eventually surge from the current 1.45 billion bushel estimate to over 1.7 billion (not in the upcoming report but further down the road). There is also more talk that corn used for ethanol could eventually be bumped from the current 5.0 billion bushel estimate to 5.1 billion bushels. The bears on the other hand continue to scream about the USDA's most recent 5.3 billion bushel "feed and residual" estimate and believe the number could ultimately be readjusted lower by 300 to 400 million bushels and completely offset the gains seen in both exports and ethanol. Bulls will argue increasing corn into feed rations and colder winter weather staying in place longer-term may keep the feed and residual numbers stronger than most are anticipating. Time will certainly tell and until then the trade seems to remain somewhat confused and trapped in a zone. I suspect another $0.10 to $0.20 cent rally to the upside will be met with heavy farmer and speculative selling. The extreme winter weather should keep the basis in most areas well supported. For now, a 40% setback in US corn prices seems to be adequate until more is known. Just keep in mind there is still more than 1.5 million metric tons of US corn on the books marked as "sold" to China, but it still hasn't shipped, as nobody knows for sure how the Chinese are going to handle US imports??? Click here for my daily report....
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