Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Did the USDA Understate Production and or Imports?
Apr 01, 2013
Corn bulls are reeling from the biggest single day price move "LOWER" since last May, as the USDA estimates close to 400 million more bushels then the trade was anticipating in the "Quarterly Stocks Report." The question is did the USDA understate production and or imports? or have they overstated feed usage, exports and corn used for ethanol? My guess is some slight combination of ALL the above, but more than likely they are going to say they UNDER-ESTIMATED last years production. Several sources have been saying for months the USDA under-estimated the late corn production out of Minnesota and North Dakota this past year. Regardless this was definitely a "BEARISH" report and the trade will quickly being trying to readjust. You have to believe one of the first steps will be to realign the "spreads," meaning the bull-spreads could seriously get pounded in the days ahead. The only good news is, as the bull spreads are unwound, it should help to keep the back-end of the trade somewhat supported, giving producers another opportunity to reduce risk and lock in some type of profit. Where do we go from here??? Click here now and fill out the basic information, I will let you know where we see old crop and new crop corn going as well as some specific numbers on the May-Dec and Dec-July Spreads.
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