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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn continues to hold near the upper end of the $0.30 cent induced "Russian Rally." The South American harvest is rolling right along and Argentine corn will soon start placing more pressure on US exporters. I continue to hear talk of China kicking US cargoes, while at the same time perhaps recently buying 2-3 cargoes of Ukraine corn. This is making me a bit uncertain in regard to Chinese demand and therefore is prompting me to halt all sales and take a more "wait and see" approach. I had originally thought the Chinese were flush with their own domestic corn and were simply kicking the US cargoes because they didn't need the supply (not necessarily the GMO issue that they are using to allow the cancelations). Now all of a sudden the Chinese are bringing in corn from Ukraine. Not that this is a major move or game changer, especially when you consider China has made huge investments in Ukraine infrastructure, and this could simply be part of the annual pay-back, but it is something I want to pay attention to. From here on out I truly believe it will be ALL about "Mother Nature" and the US weather. If producers can get 80% of the estimated US corn acres in the ground by mid-May, the trade will breath a big sigh of relief, the USDA will more than likely raise their yield estimates a hair higher and price premium will start to be removed. If on the other hand US spring weather proves to be difficult and less than 80% of the anticipated acres get planted by mid-May, the trade will get nervous and price could continue to push beyond it's current levels. As a producer, I am comfortable being 50% sold/hedge rolling into the planting season. From a spec perspective, the extremely cold soil temps in many US locations could make planting corn a real race against time, but at the same time the recent run up in price may encourage producers to plant more acres... Lots of rapidly changing moving parts to consider in the next 60-days. Be patient! CLICK HERE for my daily report.....
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