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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Wheat bulls are trying got stoke the flames in regard to ongoing conflicts in the Black Sea region. There were some rumors out this morning that Ukraine could lose 500,000 or more tons of grain due to war in country's eastern areas. The US late on Thursday accused Russia of firing artillery across the border into eastern Ukraine, and of planning to send new missile launchers and heavy weapons to separatist groups. From what I can see early this morning the market isn't overly excited about the headlines. In fact the story of "Little Red Ridding Hood" comes to mind... I think the bulls have "cried wolf" one to many times. In the end we simply see Black Sea wheat prices moving lower and their exports making it tougher on US suppliers ability to compete. Closer to home the bears are quick to point out the Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat tour of North Dakota, showed a final yield estimate of 48.6 bushels per acre, the highest in 22 years of the event. We are also hearing reports that South Dakota is looking at extremely strong yields and very high quality spring wheat as well. From my perspective, the only real hope from the bullish side of the fence is that the Spring crop is late-developing, where as a cool and wet weather could create some problems later on, especially if the market starts to eventually question complications that could arise from an early frost...unfortunately that's still a ways off. CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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