The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Like I have been saying, and most are in agreement, the USDA must have simply underestimated last year’s crop. Many in the trade continue to talk about how corn ending stocks could jump from 632 million to over 950 million bushels by the time all of the smoke clears and dust settles. My guess is there will be 250-350 million fewer bushels of corn used for feed; fewer bushels of US corn exported; and certainly more corn imported (rumors of 8-10 Argentine cargoes already purchased). Net result...much higher old-crop ending stock number coming down the pipe. I should point out, it is not just old-crop supplies that are growing, but you now have to believe new-crop ending stocks could be push closer to 2.0 to 2.5 billion bushels. We should quickly learn more in the upcoming April 10th USDA crop report, my suggestion, "hold onto your hat," we are still in extremely rough waters.
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