The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Remember the best traders are constantly trying to skate to where the "puck" is going to be...not to where the puck is currently located. The question is will the rains in the forecast for later this week be enough to stop the yields from tumbling further? Will the temps heat back up enough to do more damage? Have we heard or seen the last of the weather headlines? What are the odds of an early freeze? The point I am trying to make is that the trade has been skating hard trying to get the right angle in order to stay ahead of the "puck." If it starts to look as if it may slow down or perhaps even change direction we may end up having a pileup at center ice, something all traders are desperately trying to avoid. With the I-States reporting record low rainfall amounts for the month of August I suspect soybeans will remain in the "hot-seat" for at least a couple of more weeks. As producers, (especially those over 50% sold) I continue to believe a "wait and see" approach is our best strategy. If we can catch another leg higher on US production and weather fears I will entertain reducing a little more risk. Otherwise I want to wait and see how "demand" plays out. I have a strange feeling China is going to be a bigger buyer than they are leading on.
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Dryland beans & corn in central SD are done.Just ran out of moisture with 2 weeks of 100 degree heat.All the rain in the world won't help a dead plant.Beans are dropping leaves,corn looks like it was froze, fired all the way to the top.Ears are hanging like it's black layered,only problem is it'still only 1/2 milk line.