The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans remain the best "story," and there are still many unanswered questions, especially with the lack of available sunlight moving forward. Since most producers are running group 3,4, or 5 beans the fear is they will NOT be able to regenerate or add pods this late in the game. And even if they do add pods the pods won't be able to fill properly. Meaning you may perhaps see the pod count jump but the overall yield would still be disappointing on underdeveloped pods that didn't fill properly. With this in mind the trade currently seems to be penciling in a 40-bushel yield. The only problem is this would take soybean supplies to record tight levels and force heavy price rationing. Considering the Chinese have already booked or purchased a large quantity of US beans we would be left to ration domestic usage. The question is at what price does that occur? There are certainly lots of unanswered questions and "what if's", but the late-planting coupled with the current genetics might make it tougher than many are thinking to produce good soybean yields. Comparing the situation to last year is like comparing apples to oranges. The crop got in "early" so the pods were able to get the sunlight needed to interact with the genetics, this year that might not be the case. Bottom-line, there is certainly a lot of moving parts in the soybean market, and we have to remember the trade has never completely given up on the bullish protein story. Producers should continue to remain patient. If the market can break through what many technicians are calling a nearby double-top just above $14.09 then we will entertain more sales. Until then sit tight!
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