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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
The trade continues to focus on the US weather updates that continue to look more and more favorable, as we look out into the first couple weeks of August. The weather has remained cool but the moisture has been limited up until the latest reports. That uncertainty on the rains have kept the bean market supported to some degree but will taht last? Most were thinking that if we could get at least two rains during this time frame that we would see yields continue to increase. With the latest forecast updates, the rains look to be more consistent and widespread then what we were expecting just over the past few days. Now, we are hearing more and more, that these recent cool temps possibly could help the beans add to their yields, as the growing process is slowed down, similar to what we experienced with corn over the past few weeks. For most, July 2014, will go down as one of the coolest July's on record and the effects that it has on grain production could be unprecedented. Will it relate to record yields, for both corn and beans like most anticipate? Several well respected sources think that we could see the current USDA bean yield estimate of 45.2bpa, be pushed higher by up 3% to 4%, meaning a 46.5bpa to 47bpa, may not be out of the question. A jump in yields that substantial could push ending stocks north of 500 million bushels and prices below $10.00. As a producer, we have to make sure to be prepared for such a situation. What about the additional yields that many will have? Make sure that these bushels are also protected. We see the bean market continue to be under pressure, as these rains come to fruition. CLICK HERE for all my grain comments & get my daily report....
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