Grains were sharply lower while the old crop soy complex was strong. December corn closed 9 ¾ cents lower at $5.46 ½, September wheat down 17 ¼ at $6.87 ¾, and November soybeans unchanged at $12.73 ½. A favorable forecast and weak outside markets resulted in a sharp decline overnight but the tightness of nearby soybeans was enough to support the entire oilseed market.
After the market closed the USDA released their Weekly Crop Progress Report. Corn ratings jumped another percentage point and are now 65% good-excellent. It was at this time last year when we started to see a decline in ratings from the heat. On this week last year corn ratings were 56% good-excellent. Corn is 96% emerged compared to 99% on average.
Soybeans were 92% planted compared to 95% on average. This is at the low end of expectations but not necessarily friendly for price action. Soybean condition ratings were up 1% to 65% good-excellent with 81% emergence.
Winter wheat is 20% harvested compared to 37% on average. Conditions were up 1% from last week but are still only at 32% good-excellent. Spring wheat ratings jumped 2% and are now 70% good-excellent!
Overall the crop progress report was neutral in our opinion but that is significant in the fact that there is no news to "feed the bulls". Without a story to keep the investment money flowing, the risk premium built into the market may slowly subside. We don’t expect too much of a move this week as traders await the June 28th reports. The USDA will release acres and June stocks and will be a major source for market direction.
The average acreage guesses are in from the Reuters poll. They are pegging corn acreage at 95.313, soybeans at 77.933, and all wheat at 55.902. In the Dow Jones poll, the average quarterly stocks are guessed at 2.856 billion bushels of corn, 441 million bushels of soybeans, and 750 million bushels of wheat. The report will be released at 11:00am, Friday, June 28th.
Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may not place an order to buy or sell commodity futures contract by e-mail. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. EHedger LLC will not disclose anyone's position due to their confidential and proprietary nature. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold EHedger LLC harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information. The contents of this e-mail message and any attachments are intended solely for EHedger LLC's customers and brokers. This communication is intended to be and to remain confidential. Any duplication or distribution without the express written consent of EHedger LLC and this disclaimer is prohibited. If you are not an intended recipient of this message or if this message has been addressed to you in error, immediately alert the sender by reply e-mail and delete this message, its attachments, and any related messages from your computer and destroy any hard copies. If you are not an intended recipient or this message has been addressed to you in error, you are prohibited from delivering, distributing, disclosing, printing, copying, or relying on this message and/or any attachments. Opinions are solely those of the author and subject to change at any time, and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or commodity options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.