Closing Grain Commentary 6/2/10
Jun 02, 2010
July corn had a tough trading day Tuesday as the contract finished just off its lows at $3.48 ½, which was 5 ½ cents lower. Fund liquidation appears to be taking place and that was the theme with about 15 minutes to go in today’s session. We are right back down to the low end of the range for corn. The weather still looks favorable for most areas throughout the corn belt for the next 6-10 days. As is the case with any weather market day to day forecasts need to be monitored. We should continue to see strong progress with already planted crops and also areas that need to catch up. If the weather stays good through pollination, we will likely see December futures trade under $3.50 and head even lower towards harvest. If we were to see a weather problem her in the U.S. and/or in China this growing season we should see corn prices find a bottom in the coming months. We are hearing reports out of the West of farmers that are selling corn to make room for the upcoming wheat harvest. This could continue to put pressure on the corn market as we go forward. I still think we are positioned well at this time. For those producers that still need to get caught up on the hedge recommendations that we have issued please call your broker and discuss the available plan for your operation.
The soybean complex hung on to slight gains as the trading day came to a close. The July contract finished ½ cent higher at $9.32 ½. With the corn and wheat markets falling apart beans were still able to hang in there. Based on the fundamentals that we have right now we feel that the bean market may be susceptible to a further break from these levels if the weather continues to hold. The record South American crop continues to come online and global stocks this fall will be 45% larger than last year. We will still have to grow a crop here in the U.S. obviously, but if we do have trend line yields we could see much lower prices this fall. A lot can change (and usually does!) but if you are not caught up on sales I would look for a rally back towards $9.30-9.50 in November soybeans to do so. For those producers that have their hedges in place we would continue to stay hedged.
Another tough day in the wheat market. The July Chicago contract settled 8 ¼ cents lower at $4.42 ½. Wheat continues to struggle based on the fundamentals that are in place as well as outside markets. As previously mentioned we have been hearing that farmers out West are beginning to ramp up corn sales to make room for the upcoming wheat harvest. In our opinion if you are a wheat producer that has the ability to store your wheat, we have been discussing strategies to sell deferred futures and store the wheat in order to take advantage of the carry that is in the market. Please call your broker to see if this is a strategy that can benefit your operation.
Get More From EHedger.
Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.
Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.