Closing Grain Commentary July 13th
Jul 13, 2010
Today was another mixed day for the grains. Dec Corn finished down 4 ¾, while Nov Beans were up 3 ½ and Dec Wheat was up 14 cents. Today the US Dollar was sharply weaker and the energies and equities were sharply higher which helped Beans and Wheat hold strength.
Corn has continued to hold good resistance below $4. The midday forecast did include more moisture which helped bring corn down towards the lows in the later part of the day. Crop ratings yesterday for corn were up 2 points in the good/excellent category to 73%. This was expected to drop a percent and was also part of the reason corn was the weaker compared to other markets. Crop ratings for soybeans came in as expected and dropped 1% to 65% good/excellent.
Wheat harvest is at 63% completed with the five year average at 65% and last year at 61%. Trade talk today was mainly concerned about the damage to the Russian wheat crop after the drought they have had this year. We are still below this year's highs of $6.33 in the December contract but we have gained a $1.03 off the lows we saw in June.
July grain contracts go off the board tomorrow and could be volatile especially for beans. Our opinion is that the crop as a whole looks solid and we need to continue to monitor the weather as we move forward. For producers who still need to catch up on sales, having your orders working is a good way to capture any intra-day rallies especially when the midday forecast has such an effect on prices. Extended forecasts will always be constantly changing, in our opinion this is volatility that needs to be taken advantage of. For the producer that is worried about selling the grain in a rallying market there are call options to protect these sales. Please get in touch with your broker to discuss a strategy for your individual operation.
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