Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.
WASDE: Corn 2009/10 ending stocks higher on lower exports
Dec 11, 2009
The USDA updated the US and World 2008/09 and 2009/10 balance sheet estimates for major agricultural commodities in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday. Forecasted US corn ending stocks for 2009/10 increased on a reduction of expected corn exports of 50 million bushels (2%). The USDA decreased the domestic consumption of US wheat by 15 million bushels to 1.208 billion bushels, which increased the forecast of ending US wheat stocks for 2009/10 by 15 million bushels as well. The forecast for US soybean exports increased by 15 million bushels (1%), decreasing the 2009/10 ending stocks of soybeans by 15 million bushels.
The January Crop Production Annual Summary will give more color on crop size and prices.
Besides the forecast for a decrease in US corn exports, resulting in an increase of ending stocks for 20009/10, other forecasts remained unchanged. The USDA maintained its 2009/10 farm price for corn at $3.25-$3.85 per bushel. World corn trade was unchanged due to Ukraine’s increase in exports, which offset the United States’ decrease in exports.
US wheat’s estimated farm price for the 2009/10 season remained unchanged by the USDA at $4.65-$5.05. The midpoint in price at $4.85 per bushel is $1.93 below last year’s estimated price of $6.78. The USDA forecasted 2009/10 ending stocks of wheat to increase by 15 million bushels to 900 million bushels because of a slight decrease in domestic consumption. Higher wheat production from Canada, China and the EU-27 increased world wheat production by 2 mmt. World wheat consumption decreased this month, affecting world 2009/10 ending stocks to increase by 2.6 mmt.
Again, many of the USDA’s forecasts remained unchanged for US soybeans. Soybean yields are still forecasted at 43.3 bushels per acre, according to the WASDE. Exports of US soybeans were forecasted to increase by 15 million bushels, which will decrease the 2009/20 ending stocks by 15 million bushels, to 255 million bushels. The farm price for the 2009/10 soybean crop was increased to $8.75-$10.25 per bushel, from $8.20-$10.20.