From the Editor July 22
Jul 22, 2011
From The Editor
Hello Pro Farmer Members!
Drought on... drought off.
Risk on... risk off.
Trying to keep up with the biggest factors impacting the grain markets this week wasn't easy. It was interesting to watch corn futures struggle to move higher last week even when the forecast was hot and dry ... and it was already hot across the Midwest.
"Hot" also doesn't seem to describe conditions very well. July 18 featured a heat index in Waterloo, Iowa, of 116 degrees. But that was nothing compared to the 131 heat index recorded in Knoxville, Iowa, that day! Yes... 131!!! That's crazy -- and unhealthy for the corn crop that's trying to pollinate.
Speaking of heat stress on the corn crop... a pollinating corn crop can handle 1 day like we had last week without much, if any, damage; 2 days of that kind of heat and the stress starts to build and yield potential is nicked... but just slightly; 3 days stinks and takes a bite out of yields; 4 consecutive days like we saw last week knocks back yields.
But the question is... what was the yield potential before the heat hit? Here in northeast Iowa, this week's heat might have trimmed yields from 215 to 212... it's that good up here. But in some spots of central Illinois, yields might have slipped from 200 to 175 because of the heat.
Obviously, we won't know the impact of this week's heat until kernels start to fill. I'll stop and check a couple of early fields over the weekend and report back early next week. I suspect everything will look great here. As kernels start to fill in your area, check a few fields and let me know how well the crop pollinated.
Heat-stress during pollination can show up in "shotgun pollination" or with kernels at the butt of the cob failing to pollinate. Don't look for tip-back (yet) -- pollination problems won't be reflected by tipped-back ears. Tip back shows up later if the crop is heat- or moisture-stressed during kernel fill.
So... which factor was most important for the corn market this week? Was it the weather... or was it the flow of money around the world moving to (and away) from risk? Right now... weather trumps all other factors.
But I don't want to underestimate the impact of the dollar. There are a lot of dollars that trade in the corn market that follow dollar trade. In fact, there might be more money that watch the dollar trade than watch the weather forecast. The factor has the biggest amount of dollars tied to it should be the most important factor in the market, right?
That's why you've got to watch more than "just" the weather forecast... even when the weather trumps all other factors.
That's it for this week...
... And don't forget... you are all invited to join us on the Crop Tour this summer!
Dear past and future Crop Tour Participants,
It's almost time to once again hit the road on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour! With USDA already making adjustments to acreage and yield based on a slower-than-normal planting season, the 2011 Crop Tour will undoubtedly be a closely watched industry event again this year. By coming along on the Tour, you'll be involved in the first widespread industry survey of this year's corn and soybean crop potential. As always, Tour participants will learn more about the crop faster than anyone else in the industry.
The format of the Tour will be very similar to last year’s:
- We’ll gather at starting points Aug. 21, 2011, at 8:00 p.m. for orientation.
- Match up riders with drivers at this meeting.
- Make everyone is comfortable with the sampling procedure.
- Scouts will travel by car in teams of three to four scouts.
- Evening meals will be provided by Tour sponsors Pioneer Hi-Bred, SFP, Rural Community Insurance Services and Chevrolet Trucks.
- Local producers will be invited to evening meetings to share their crop insights.
- Route reports will follow dinner at each location.
This format allows for plenty of time to network with other scouts and with producers who share critical insight into local crop conditions.
Eastern scouts will again gather in Columbus, Ohio, where Pro Farmer Sr. Market Analyst Brian Grete and Crop Tour consultant Mark Bernard will prepare everyone for the week.
Western scouts will meet in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, where Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory and Crop Tour consultant Terry Johnston will guide you through the western Corn Belt.
Be sure to make plans for this Tour! Thursday night’s final meeting in Austin, Minnesota, promises to be exceptional!
Producer participation on this year’s Tour is critical to its success. Growers provide keen insight to crop potential and we hope to have several Pro Farmer Members along this year to do just that. If you’ve been on the Tour before, you know the value of the information gathered. If you’ve never been on the Tour before, make 2011 your first… it’s worth the time and effort. Even if you can’t attend the entire Tour, please join the scouting effort for a day or two.
(The 2011 Pro Farmer registration form is on the back of this letter.)
Eastern Tour overnight stops: Western Tour overnight stops:
Aug. 21 – Columbus, Ohio Aug. 21 – Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Aug. 22 – Fishers, Indiana Aug. 22 – Grand Island, Nebraska
Aug. 23 – Bloomington, Illinois Aug. 23 – Nebraska City, Nebraska
Aug. 24 – Iowa City, Iowa Aug. 24 – Spencer, Iowa
Aug. 25 – Austin, Minnesota Aug. 25 – Austin, Minnesota
Call 1-800-772-0023 and talk to Shelley now to reserve your spot on the Tour!