Frustrating week for many corn farmers
Sep 06, 2013
From The Editor
September 6, 2013
Hello Pro Farmer Members!
Tough week. A downside reversal on the daily chart for December corn futures started the week. It ended with a higher market and near today's session high, but it's still down 13 3/4 cents on the week. It was a tough week for a lot of growers to stomach. These guys held their frustration in check last week during the first heat wave of the year. But this week with very little rain and still-too-hot temps was too much and frustrations started to boil over.
And then harvest started in some key areas of the Corn Belt and yield results were... well... very good. But, this is the earliest planted corn that established a lot of its yield potential before hot and dry conditions really choked down the corn and bean crops. So, earliest-planted is earliest harvested and this year it should have the best yield potential. It will be interesting to see what happens when growers open up fields that were planted on May 25 that are completely brown right now... I bet it won't be 200-bu.-plus! The early harvest results were considered "piling on" by many in the areas with the most hurdles to clear this year..
Since corn and soybean plantings were wrapping up in June, the group at Pro Farmer has been cautioning it would take a long time to figure out actual crop potential. First, too much ground went unplanted. The impact of that won't show up until the October Crop Production Report.
Second, the impact of late-plantings on corn and soybeans normally isn't exposed until combines roll. We expected a normal growing season from the end of the planting season, which would have meant a lot of the late-planted corn and soybeans wouldn't be harvested until late October or even early November. That's why we figured the impact of the late-plantings on yields wouldn't be fully realized until the November Crop Production Report.
Well, after two weeks of terribly stressful conditions on corn and soybeans, harvest on the latest-planted crops will probably happen sometime in October. The push heat and dry conditions have given development of the crops will probably get most to maturity before October 1, but it still may take some actual October harvest results before USDA is able to give more clarity to the size of this year's crops.
I get the frustration... but it's still a waiting game. The downtrend in corn prices won't reverse until a majority of the money in the corn market is convinced the fundamentals of the market have changed. At this point, it looks like we'll have to wait until November before that happens.
That's it for now...
... be safe as you get ready for harvest or even open up some fields in the week ahead.
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