From the Editor
Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete takes time to talk with Pro Farmer Members about some of the key issues in each week's Pro Farmer newsletter.
Introducing Your New Sr. Market Analyst -- Rich Posson
Apr 11, 2014
Hello Pro Farmer Members!
When Chip stepped aside as Pro Farmer editor to start his Market Rally radio program and I became editor, it left us in need of a new senior market analyst. We don’t hire new employees at Pro Farmer very often, especially at senior-level positions. We pride ourselves in having very few editorial staffing changes. That continuity and consistency is a trademark of Pro Farmer.
Chip and I knew we couldn’t hire just anyone for this position; we had to find the "right" person. This person is responsible for the marketing advice for you, our Members. After an extensive search that garnered interest from many highly qualified candidates, we found that "right" person. I’m extremely excited to introduce Rich Posson as your new senior market analyst.
The addition of Rich to our experienced and talented staff strengthens our risk-management team. Rich brings a broad skill set to Pro Farmer that will allow us to make sure you will continue to be equipped with the knowledge to make the right risk-management decisions to ensure the longevity of your farming operation.
Rich Posson — his own words
I grew up on a grain, beef cattle, dairy and forage farm in upstate New York. Following college, I returned to the farm and was in charge of doubling the size of our dairy operation, which then caused a doubling of crop land. In addition, my brother and I purchased two smaller farms. It was during those farm management years that I learned the value of risk management and analysis as a road map to assist with bottom-line strategy.
In the 1990s, I left the farm businesses and became a registered commodity trading advisor. Shortly thereafter, I became a certified technical analyst.
From 1996 to 2012, I operated a futures brokerage business that focused on risk-management consulting, including assisting producers with hedging their production. During those years, I also assisted producers with forward contracting production, locking in basis and making cash marketing decisions through market research and analysis.
During my 30 years in agriculture, I have learned that markets, climate and the economy are cyclical. A cycle is a repetitive pattern of lows and highs — good times and struggles in the economy. Agriculture also has cyclical patterns of poor crops and favorable growing seasons. In short, cycles suggest seasons or trends of fluctuation that might be akin to what was often written in more than one religious or historical document as a season of feast or famine.
My preferred form of cycle studies is "time cycle" analysis. That is, it’s more about the time for a change of season or a change of trend than it is about a price level. I have learned there are several types of cycles in terms of duration and amount of price change, just as there are multiple types of market participants.
Model-based research suggests that as consumers and producers we conduct business in daily, weekly, quarterly and semi-annual periods. This creates corresponding fluctuation of supply and demand, plus a correlation to price fluctuation.
Although I have a fascination with time cycles and I have had some success with this form of analysis, I also believe strongly in using a checks and balances system that includes standard fundamentals, technicals (charts) and economic forms of analysis. I seek a more detailed story. I seek conditions for and against the cycle stance.
A history of success
Some successes during my career were the correct forecast for corn to rally to a record high and for it to do so by 2008. History shows corn waited to my "deadline" year and then exploded to a record high. Another correct long-term forecast was the minor crop problem in 2010 was a clue that a crop and climate cycle of complications was underway. This reached fruition with the 2012 drought. An annual corn report I wrote ahead of the 2012 growing season suggested that if a drought occurred a strong bull market would push futures to $8.40. Corn futures posted an all-time high of $8.43 3/4 that year.
While it’s gratifying to discuss my successes, no analyst, trader or farmer is right all of the time. My key to market analysis has been to find something that works and to have the discipline to work with the trend of performance.
My goal has always been to provide useful insight to assist a business with decisions that relate to and strengthen the bottom line. That will remain my goal at Pro Farmer. I’m extremely excited to be your senior market analyst and carry on the rich tradition Pro Farmer has created for more than four decades.
Get to know Rich personally
Rich will be attending Pro Farmer seminars and events on a regular basis, so many of you will get to meet him face-to-face. Don’t hesitate to call or email Rich any time you have risk-management or market-related questions. Rich can be reached via email at firstname.lastname@example.org or by calling the Pro Farmer office phone number.
That's it for now...
... have a great weekend!
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