This Year, Bigger Crop Equals Bigger Demand
Oct 05, 2012
From The Editor
October 5, 2012
Hello Pro Farmer Members!
I was shocked by the presidential debate Tuesday night. As expected, Romney was good -- but I expect President Obama to be better. That's the message I tried to deliver on News page 4 of this week's newsletter. I'm not going to fool anybody into thinking I'm a huge Obama fan, but don't think for a minute that I'm a huge fan of Republican nominee Mitt Romney, either. Jim Wiesemeyer and I tried to be as objective as possible in our analysis of the debate and if this week's News page 4 comes off as we're "big Romney supporters" it's because of the single debate. After that performance, it was tough not to appear "pro-Romney" -- he was that much better than our President. (Again... in the debate.)
This could easily change in the next debate. President Obama will be much more prepared and won't be the push-over he appeared to be on Tuesday night. Romney was prepared... but he better double or triple up on getting ready for Round Two... Obama will be gunning for him.
There was some information that didn't get into the newsletter this week from PF crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. On the U.S. crop, he's leaning up a bushel on both his national average corn yield and national average soybean yield. That would put his corn yield estimate at 120 bu. per acre. But, he's still working with a harvested acreage estimate of 83 million, which would put still leave his corn crop estimate under 10 billion bushels.
On soybeans, his yield estimate will likely climb to 36 bu. per acre, adding 73.3 million bu. to his current crop estimate of 2.56 billion bushels. That would push his crop estimate to 2.63 billion bushels.
Dr. Cordonnier also told me this morning that Argentina's corn crop is nearing 20% planted, but corn that has already emerged might need to be replanted after recent cold temps frosted the plants.
Big events coming this week:
October 11: USDA Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports. We all want to know what the new crop estimates will be from USDA's National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). But... do yourself a favor and go to the World Ag Outlook Boards' (WAOB's) carryover estimate first. That's because even if NASS does estimate bigger corn and soybean crops, we expect much of the production increase to be offset with bigger usage estimates to keep carryover estimates close to the 733 million bu. for corn and 115 million bu. for soybeans estimated in the September S&D Report.
Also on October 11: I'll be a guest on Futures Now, a new online, live-streaming show produced by CNBC. The streaming begins at noon CT on Tuesdays and Thursdays and I'll be on Thursday after the Crop Production and Supply & Demand Report to do some quick analysis with host Jackie DeAngelis. To watch, just go to www.futuresnow.cnbc.com. If you can't watch the live streaming, the show is available "on demand" any time after the live streaming.
That's it for now...
Have a great weekend!
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