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Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno,

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March Beans Capped at $13.40, Again

Feb 12, 2014

Grains closed lower to end the overnight session, with corn down 1 3/4 cents, soybeans off 5 1/4 cents, and Chicago wheat down ½ cent.

Old crop soybeans continued to show strength in the early going, taking another run at $13.40. This area has acted as firm resistance since early December, with the March contract testing $13.40 on five occasions but unable to move higher. Bulls will be looking to a tender from the Egyptians in the overnight session to bring more export-side excitement to the bean market. In that tender Egypt sought 20,000 tonnes soybean oil for April delivery. South American weather may begin to pressure the soybean market as rains are falling today in northern Argentina and relief from near 100 degree temperatures is expected by Friday for southern Brazil.

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Corn slid lower in the overnight session, closing on its lows but down just 2 cents. Weekly ethanol production data will be released this morning, with expectations for another light weekly figure. Current ethanol crush margins now sit at $2.61 per bushel in eastern Iowa, off 5 cents last week and down 90 cents since the first of the year. The major driver of weaker crush has been the price of corn which has surged following the January USDA report. If corn continues moving lower, look for technical support at $4.35 on the March contract – the near term highs following the January USDA report.

Wheat was off ½ cent in Chicago, and down ¾ of a cent in Kansas City and Minneapolis in a very quiet overnight session. A French private analyst projected higher soft wheat stocks for France during the 2013/14 marketing year. This may pressure wheat futures as a big part of Monday’s price move was lower expected exports out of Argentina and the Black Sea region in the current marketing year.  

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