The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Grain TV is a daily recap after the market close, providing opinions on fundamental analysis of market direction, influences and expectations. This daily program is produced by Grain Hedge, a discount brokerage firm that provides farmers and elevators with agricultural intelligence including live market quotes, cash bid data, the Grain Hedge Optimizer™ and mobile trading platforms, all for $7 commission per side. Grain Hedge provides tools to allow farmers the ability to trade when the markets move without having to wait for a broker and the information to execute a marketing strategy with confidence.
Today we wanted to highlight some price action from the November soybean contract. At the time of this post it is trading at 1167 3/4 - down 20.3% since the recent high we printed on August 31st. You can see that this high came on the heels of a sharp move out of the 1300 - 1400 range we were stuck in for a six month period.
We included an RSI indicator on this chart and you can see that after taking 297 cents off this contract since August 31st it has reached oversold territory. With this being said, the soybean market is a very different beast than the corn market coming into harvest as soybean yields have been projected higher and export sales remain sluggish. We are looking for minor support around the 1128 level, but if we continue lower and trade through these levels - look out below.
Right now the cash market is paying producers to store their 2011 crop. For producers that have not yet priced their bushels, being long basis may pay off as we move away from harvest. Give us a call today to talk about marketing strategies as we move through harvest.
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