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Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

USDA Report Analysis

Oct 11, 2012

The Numbers:

Production
Corn: 10.706 billion bushel vs 10.601 expected
Soybeans: 2.86 billion bushel vs 2.764 expected

Yield
Corn: 122 BPA vs 122.88 expected
Soybeans: 37.8 BPA vs 37 expected

Ending Stocks
Corn: 619 million bushel vs 648 expected
Soybeans: 130 million bushel vs 134 expected

Other Important Numbers
Soybeans exports for 12/13 raised by 210 million bushel
1.1 million acres added to 12/13 soybean harvested acreage

Breakdown:
Once again we saw a wide range printed in the first 20 minutes of trading (picture below) before the market settled into a trade range. At the time of this post we see corn up 25 cents, soybeans up 30 cents, and wheat trailing - up 9 in Chicago and 11 in Kansas City.

Ending stocks for soybeans came in 2% below market expectations while corn was 4% lower than market expectations. We saw dramatic revisions to projected soybean export sales (1.1 million bushel higher) and projected corn export sales (1 million bushel lower) which reflects the sluggish pace for corn in recent weeks and a soybean export market that remains red hot.

Bulls are looking for a substantial harvested acreage revision in coming reports, where as the bears are looking at this report as providing little bullish news and this rally being pushed by short covering.

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beans

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