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Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

USDA Report Numbers and Analysis

May 10, 2013

USDA Report Numbers

Grain futures are trading lower across the board today following this morning's May WASDE report. Below are the reported numbers and the opinions of Grain Hedge analysts

2012/13 Ending Stock Projections 
 
May
Avg. Guess
April
Corn 759
754
757
Soybeans
125
124
125
Wheat
731
731
731

Wheat and soybeans were mostly unchanged from the April report, with just 1 million bushels added to projected 12/13 soybean ending stocks. The USDA actually raised expected corn use going to ethanol, while lowering projected food, seed, and industrial use. On net, corn ending stocks were raised 2 million bushels from the April report. Today's old crop numbers were not a game changer.

 

 

2013/14 Ending Stock Projections 
 
May
Avg. Guess
April
Corn 2,004
1,973
n/a
Soybeans
265
239
n/a
Wheat
670
627
n/a

 

 

Today the USDA confirmed they have little concern about the production potential out of the 13/14 crops. Corn plantings were left at 97.3 million acres with an average yield of 158 bushels per acre. This pushes new crop ending stocks above 2 billion bushels which will continue to weigh on new crop corn prices. Keep in mind many analysts equate ending stock numbers over 2 billion bushels to roughly $4.50 corn futures. 

 

The soybean market also saw larger than expected ending stock projections. Looking at production, the USDA projects 77.1 million soybean acres planted with an average yield of 44.5 bushels per acre. Wheat saw a bearish number with lower export expectations more than offsetting the crop losses from the KC Wheat crop. 

 

For a full breakdown of the numbers and what this may mean for prices tune into today's GrainTV, available every afternoon on the Grain Hedge homepage.

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