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Inputs Insights

RSS By: Davis Michaelsen, Pro Farmer

Inputs Monitor Editor Davis Michaelsen adds his perspective into the happenings of the inputs markets.

May In Review

May 31, 2013


All of the nutrients and fuels in your Inputs Monitor Index fell through the end of the month. It is no accident that we have spent a lot of time talking about timing this month. The declines signal seasonal lows may be in place. Farm diesel is a good example as the current regional average is very near the projected 2013 average price per gallon at $3.423. However, some areas lie well below that figure and we advised yesterday to book a portion of farm diesel.

We expect urea's bear run to continue as China, which has oversupplied the global market with urea, will open it's seasonal tariff window on July 1. This should open downside action for urea and wholesale prices could go as low as $300/tonne FOB by mid-summer.bigbearlilgirl

Anhydrous users, however, are finding the price is right to book for fall in some areas. Meanwhile, unused anhydrous in wake of tumultous weather in the Corn Belt will limit demand for some.

UAN solutions are the wild card at present and we expect prices to move slightly higher near-term as agronomists are now recommending another healthy dose of N for crops planted in saturated soils where N has leeched and run off.

April Ended
May Ended
Farm Diesel


Anhydrous fell $1.91 to $870.70; UAN28 down just 18 cents to $401.84; UAN32 down $4.10 to $441.19 and urea slides $5.70 to end the month at $562.45.

DAP gives up $3.25 to $634.06; MAP contributes to the price declines with a $7.18 retreat to $652.11.

Potash fell $7.15 to $580.79 as springtime demand has been very weak for K.

Farm diesel is one to watch as a historical analysis suggests ruby red is due for its annual trip to the upside. Once it takes off, it may take until Christmas for prices to fall back to today's low. Down just a nickel month-on-month to $3.423.

LP moved 1 cent lower and we like pricing here as well, however this market is less certain than farm diesel. Pricing projections expect LP to average $1.43 in 2013. Again, very close to the current price of $1.449.cornemerges 002 (2)

With all of these, prices vary by state and location. Check prices with the Inputs Monitor map and your preferred supplier, but consider filling some fall needs today.


In Case You Missed It

Despite nutrient pricing hanging at current levels like a sloth in a tree, it has been a big month in inputs news. A lot has been written regarding how to handle nitrogen decisions given the tricky weather. In Former Soviet Union (FSU) news, Russia steals a page from the capitalist playbook. In response, Ukraine and Poland explore their reserves.

The news from upstream is encouraging, but suggests a high degree of uncertainty -- thanks guys. In the news, California Senator Barbara Boxer calls for an investigation into the West, TX explosion, LNG imports get a shot in the arm and Apache Energy helps out Moore, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, corn emerges in the Midwest.

On the Farm --

Is it Time to Book Fall Inputs? -- Check Your Spread, Check Your Gut

U.S. Nitrogen Trade Favors Urea & UAN

Spring Precipitation Reduces N: ISU Soil Test Results

Agronomists Advise a Shot of N for Rain-soaked Soil

FSU --

Russia's Gazprom -- Capitalism Ain't Easy

Ukraine & Poland: The New Face of E.U. Natural Gas Production

FSU Gives China a Taste of its Own Potash

Upstream --

Mosaic -- P&K Shipments Exceed Expectations

Rabobank Releases Global Nutrient Outlook

In the News --

California Senator Urges EPA Investigation of West, TX Explosion

Corn Emerges in Central Iowa

Freeport LNG Terminal Gets DOE Approval to Export

Apache Energy Lends Aid in Moore, OK

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