Osama bin Laden is Dead
May 02, 2011
What Traders are Talking About:
* Osama bin Laden dead. U.S. forces killed Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden Sunday just 40 miles from the Pakistan capitol of Islamabad. He was later buried at sea. This closes the book on a man who was responsible for the death of so many innocent men, women and children during the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the nearly 10 years thereafter.
The long and short of it: Traders responded initially by removing risk premium from the market -- strength in the dollar and weakness in most commodities. Crude oil futures were hit the hardest. But for grain markets, focus is likely to be mostly fundamental-based now that the initial reaction to the bin Laden news is over.
* A little drier in the western Corn Belt. Warmer and drier weather allowed some producers to get back into fields in the western Corn Belt yesterday. Forecasts call for scattered rains across the western Belt this week, but conditions should be a little warmer and drier than they have been. Cold, wet conditions are forecast to continue in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with potential for heavy rains in some areas of the southern and eastern Corn Belt this week. Meanwhile, cold temps are the latest threat to the HRW crop, as there is a chance for a frost/freeze as deep as central Oklahoma tonight.
The long and short of it: The corn planting pace should pick up in the western Corn Belt this week, but the overall pace will remain well behind normal. Guesses for corn planting progress this afternoon are relatively wide, ranging from 12% to 20% complete.
* HRW crop tour runs this week. Traders will pay a lot of attention to first-hand reports from Kansas as the Wheat Quality Council conducts its annual HRW wheat tour Tuesday through Thursday. Other groups are also conducting separate tours in Colorado and Oklahoma this week. Traders will be intently waiting to see if recent rains in the Plains were enough to give the HRW crop a meaningful boost.
The long and short of it: While wheat traders will remain focused on weather and crop conditions, these first-hand accounts of the HRW crop should give traders a better idea of crop potential.
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