A portion of the most recent rise in wheat futures may be attributed to the demonstrations within North Africa’s Egypt and how the key importer of wheat may have disruptions. MGEX analyzed North Africa and ascertained it is not all about Egypt, and not just about wheat.
Egypt is the number one importer of wheat in the world but do not lose sight that another North Africa country, Algeria who is the world’s fourth largest importer. Of the total domestic consumption of wheat, Egypt has 53% imported, Algeria 61%.
In the 2010-2011 USDA projected estimates for corn, Egypt is the world’s fourth largest importer. Of the total consumption within Egypt, 43% is imported, down from the 2009-10 level of 47%.
The number four world importer of soybean oil is Morocco and number five importer is Algeria. Algeria needs to import 86% of its 2010-2011 domestic consumption which is equal to the previous marketing year. For the most recent three years, Morocco has imported 100% of its domestic consumption of soybean oil.
There are other factors outside of North Africa which support the present rally, such as tight stocks to use, less than ideal world weather conditions and positive high protein demand.
MGEX welcomes your questions.........Joe Victor
Information used to compile this update is from publicly available sources. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a trading recommendation of MGEX, its employee or its members. For informational purposes only.
