Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.
Exports are Measurable
Jan 28, 2011
MGEX analyzed the performance of export sales, one of the few items measured on a regular basis. Each Thursday, the USDA reports export sales and shipments for wheat, corn, soybeans and other agricultural products. Although the trade may not present a great deal of respect to the weekly sales, it is uncanny how the trade reacts.
Most other demand data is a month old before it makes its way into the supply-demand pipeline.
As a percentage of export sales to annual production, the chart below shows soybean sales continuing to trend higher, wheat nearly flat and corn lower.
Wheat export sales as a percent of annual production have pushed through major trend line resistance, with soybeans and corn holding their respective trend lines.
Within the wheat, 2010-2011 Hard Red Spring wheat export sales are 75% higher than year ago levels and 49% higher than the 5 year average. Durum wheat export sales are 2% higher than year ago levels and 14% higher than the 5 year average. Hard Red Winter wheat export sales for 2011 are 64% higher than year ago levels and 47% above the five year average. Soft Red Winter wheat export sales for 2011 are 13% less than year ago levels and 35% less than the five year average.
Contained within the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report are probability studies which suggest corn weekly export sale estimates are 59% above the final USDA WASDE report, 41% above for soybeans and wheat.
MGEX welcomes your questions.........Joe Victor