Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.
Grain and Oilseed Ending Stocks
Dec 23, 2010
MGEX analyzed USDA’s December to January WASDE reports of ending stocks dating back to the 2000. The information provided is as important to the producer as it is the end user.
USDA has raised all wheat end stocks from the December to January report seven of the last ten years and every year dating back to 2004. Although the adjustments were higher, when comparing the adjustment for end stocks to the total production, the percentages range from -1.48% to 4.33% with an average of 1.01%.
The history behind corn finds an increase in end stocks in six of the last ten years. Although the appearance may be volatile, the range has been -3.76% to 2.68% and an average of .27%.
The history for soybeans has been four years of higher end stocks, four years lower and two years unchanged. When comparing the adjustment for end stocks to the total production the range has been -1.55% to 3.24% and an average of .17%.
According to USDA’s own recent reliability studies, they overstate soybean end stocks versus final estimates by 72%, corn 45% and wheat 34%.
MGEX welcomes your questions.........Joe Victor
Information used to compile this update is from publicly available sources. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a trading recommendation of MGEX, its employee or its members. For informational purposes only.