Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.
New Records for the 21st Century
Jan 14, 2011
The USDA released data on January 12, 2011. Upon analysis of the data, MGEX focused on the starches and oilseeds within the United States.
The first item noticed is a record low for the number of days of supply for corn is now less than three weeks. By comparison, the former three years has averaged 48 days. The usage of corn for the first quarter of 2010-2011 is 4.222 billion bushels versus the most recent three year average of 3.293 billion bushels, an increase of 28%. Presently, the end stock-to-use is 5.5% versus last year’s 13.07%. You would have to go back to 1995’s 4.98% to find less present end stocks-to-use.
USDA also dropped the days’ supply of wheat to 121 days, with second quarter usage of 529 million bushels versus a three year average of 464 million bushels. The usage of wheat for the second quarter of 2010-2011 is 529 million bushels versus the most recent three year average of 464 million bushels, an increase of 14%.Currently, the end stock to use is 33% versus last year’s 48.4%. A recent low point was 2008 when end stocks to use was 28.9%.
Another record belongs to the soybeans with a current 15 day supply for the U.S. versus last year’s 16 day supply. Soybeans days’ supply has been on a decline for four consecutive years and since the 1999-2000 marketing year, have never been lower. The usage of soybeans for the first quarter of 2010-2011 is 1.256 billion bushels versus the most recent three year average of 1.113 billion bushels, an increase of 13%. The end stock to use is 4.2% versus last year’s 4.5%. Dating back to 1980 there are smaller end stocks to use.
In conclusion, new records of the days’ supply of soybeans and corn have been set. The spill over support for high protein HRSW and HRWW is noticeable globally as food supplies are shrinking.
MGEX welcomes your questions.........Joe Victor