USDA Plantings & Stocks Preview
Mar 29, 2012
Friday morning's USDA prospective plantings report has been one of the most talked about reports in the past decade.
My numbers are slightly different that the "trade estimate" averages. The main issue I see with these reports are they are based on 85,000 farmer surveys over the first 2 weeks of March. A lot can and has changed over the past two weeks that could alter what a farmer is going to plant.
The ratio of new crop corn to new crop soybeans is traditionally around 2.3. When soybeans are 2.3 times the price of corn, there is little price incentive to plant more of either crop. The current spread is 2.47, meaning there is a slight incentive to plant soybeans instead of corn. This may in fact increase the amount of acres of soybeans and lower the amount of corn planted.
Plantings Trade Estimates
| Corn Acres Planted |
94.7 million |
| Soybean Acres Planted |
75.4 million |
| Wheat Acres Planted |
57.4 million |
Justin Lewis's Esimates
| Corn Acres Planted |
93.8 million |
| Soybean Acres Planted |
76.5 million |
| Wheat Acres Planted |
57 million |
Quarterly Stocks Trade Estimates
| Wheat Stocks |
1.223 billion bu. |
| Corn Stocks |
6.15 billion bu. |
| Soybean Stocks |
1.387 billion bu. |
Justin Lewis's Stocks Estimates
| Wheat Stocks |
1.21 billion bu. |
| Corn Stocks |
6.3 billion bu. |
| Soybean Stocks |
1.42 billion bu. |
Happy Trading,
Justin R. Lewis, M.B.A.
V.P. - KIS Futures, Inc
Direct: (877) 431-9805
Cell: (580) 335-1602
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
