Based on the USDA Crop Progress Report, corn progress is more than 70% good to excellent and many producers are frustrated, exhausted and in some cases angry with marketing this year. The comments received are my crop looked good until July 1 and now I need some rain or when the prices were high I did not know if I was going to have a crop, so I did not sell to I did not sell enough. For those producers who sold too early and are looking at a good yields, they are frustrated. On June 17th, when December corn went to $4.49, those producers who made some cash sales are now angry that they did not sell more. On the whole, many producers are exhausted, wondering where the prices are going and concerned even lower prices are coming.
This week we saw a lot of volatility and big swings in the grains with the potential for a continuation of this type of market movement through July and August. It is all about weather. A heat dome will be in place for the last half of July and if rain is taken out of the forecast, the market will trend higher. It will be difficult to get much above the June high of $4.49 unless a loss of yield is seen.
As for soybeans one has to assume strong support is still at $10.23 (7/7/16 low) and until the market moves below that level, the market should be firm to sideways in trend with near-term resistance at $10.79.
Many are wondering what to do and should they be doing something in the market. Right the moment one could say the market is firm and could go either direction. It would be difficult to trade because if the decision is adverse to the market, one would be adding to their frustration. This is a moment to step back and reflect on the mistakes made this year and decide now before harvest how one is going to reown or enhance revenue. It is not a time to be chasing a volatile market. At this time the decision should be made to either store or sell any unsold bushels on market rallies.
Our office is putting together a publication for buying strategies on fall lows. If you are interested in receiving a copy, call Laura. If you have questions and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We welcome emails to email@example.com or firstname.lastname@example.org.
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