PFA Pioneer Blog
Jim Weisemeyer's election preview
Jun 29, 2012
Pro Farmer Extra
- From the Editors of Pro Farmer newsletter
Corn planted acres up, harvested acres down
June 29, 2012
It's not very often the June Acreage Report from USDA can add 2.315 million acres to expected soybean harvested acres and the market can close higher. Planted soybean acres were about 500,000 above the average pre-report trade estimate, so the harvested acreage number blew-away trade expectations, as well.
Nonetheless, soybean futures charged higher again today. Without stress-relieving rains in the near-term, the contract high in November soybeans set earlier this week will likely get pushed aside next week.
And did you notice that while USDA's planted corn acreage estimate is up about 540,000 acres from March intentions its harvested acreage estimate is now about 250,000 acres below the harvested acreage projection in the June S&D Report. Add in declining yield potential, and the crop is at least 900 million bu. smaller than projected in the June S&D Report.
Wiesemeyer's Election preview
The period from July Fourth to early September usually provides the best information as to who voters want in Washington, and a lot can happen in that time. Pro Farmer Washington Consultant Jim Wiesemeyer says this makes his current election predictions subject to change (perhaps major ones), especially in light of a host of global economic woes.
Jim gives 75% odds Republicans will keep the House, as Democrats would need a net gain of 25 seats to wrest control from the GOP. The Senate outlook is dicier. Jim says a 50/50 seat outcome is certainly possible in the chamber (counting the independents as caucusing with the Democrats). Under this scenario, the vice president would break voting ties. And of course, that depends on who lands the White House.
Noting most election-year experts still see the presidential race as too-close-to-call, Jim says if he had to guess, he’d put 55% odds on President Obama squeaking by GOP candidate Mitt Romney.
Jim boils key swing states down to nine (largely based on campaign spending thus far): Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Hispanics make up a major part of the voting population in Neveda. (17%), Colo. (13%) and Florida (19%), so this demographic could have an influence on presidential and congressional contest outcomes.
Some refine the battleground list further to: Florida, Ohio, Viginia, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado. Of these, Romney must win Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Obama can keep the White House with victory in one of those states and one of the other three on the list.
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