PFA Pioneer Blog
No October Crop Production Report - yet
Oct 11, 2013
Pro Farmer Extra
- From the Editors of Pro Farmer newsletter -
October 11, 2013
Note: The following is from this week's issue of Pro Farmer newsletter and was written by Pro Farmer editor Chip Flory.
No October Crop Production Report... yet
The government shutdown at best postponed delivery of the October Crop Production Report. At worst it could cancel the report. We believe USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service will deliver Oct. 1 estimates based on data collected ahead of the Oct. 1 shutdown. When? Probably before the end of the month, but it depends on when the government reopens.
Looking ahead —
There is data (partial?) available for an Oct. 1 crop estimate, but what concerns us most is data being lost for the November Crop Production Report. USDA enumerators are instructed, “As farmer harvest of the sample field nears, close contact must be maintained with the operator. Final pre-harvest observations should be made as close to harvest as possible.”
A four-day rain delay in areas of the Midwest will limit the impact of lost “final pre-harvest” observations, but with enumerators off the job, some of the objective yield plots have likely been harvested and the pre-harvest sample was lost.
Another concern is the measure of harvest loss. That’s the grain left on the ground after harvest. The enumerator’s handbook includes instructions to “Keep in touch with the farmer so you will know when harvest is completed in the sample field designated for postharvest observation. Glean the sample units immediately after harvest so that they are not disturbed by birds and rodents or destroyed by plowing."
Lost data = uncertainty
We’re asking officials how potential lost data might impact upcoming crop estimates. Lost yield data only lowers the reliability of crop estimates. That means another year of uncertainty about total corn and soybean supplies.
Follow Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory on Twitter: @ChipFlory
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