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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Friday, March 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Mar 08, 2013


* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The most important U.S. economic report of the month, the
employment situation report for February, is due out Friday
morning. The key non-farm payroll number is expected to come
in at up 157,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast at
7.8%. Look for active trade in many markets in the immediate
aftermath of the jobs report. In overnight news, China’s
trade surplus in February was $15.25 billion from $29.15
billion in January. Forecasts had called for a $16 billion
deficit. Strong Chinese exports were credited with the
surprising trade surplus during the month. China releases
industrial output, retail sales and inflation data during
this weekend. German industrial production was weaker than
expected in January, at unchanged from December’s 0.6% rise.
A 0.4% rise was forecast for January. This follows Thursday
report that German manufacturing orders dropped 1.9% in
January, from December. European stock markets were firmer
Friday, awaiting the U.S. jobs data for fresh direction.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
monthly wholesale trade and the monthly USDA supply and
demand report for major grains.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
near a five-year high. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,550.00 and
then at 1,565.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,535.60 and then at 1,524.60. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and
hovering near a five-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at this week’s high of
2,809.25 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,790.50 and then at 2,775.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
this week’s all-time record high. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,245 and then at
14,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,300 and then at Thursday’s record high of
14,332. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly amid
the rallying U.S. stock market and better investor risk
appetite this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 142 even and then at 142 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 141 19/32 and then at
141 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
two-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.23.5 and then
at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130.17.0 and then at 130.10.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback
bulls still have the near-term technical advantage as prices
hover not far below this week’s six-month high. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 82.865 and then at 83.000. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.305 and then at
82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Prices are
not that far above this week’s nine-week low. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at this week’s high of $91.73 and then at $92.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $91.00
and then at Thursday’s low of $90.22. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer overnight on more short
covering. Traders will close scrutinize this morning’s USDA
supply and demand report. Look for an active trading day in
the grain futures today.
 

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