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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Markets Report--Augut 22

Aug 22, 2012

Wednesday, August 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stock markets were weaker ahead
of meetings between Greek and European Union officials later
this week. Greece’s prime minister said this week his
country needs more time to implement austerity measures. A
two-year German note auction overnight fetched no yield,
which suggests investors in Europe are still very uncertain
and seeking safer-haven assets. Traders and investors are
awaiting the September 6 monthly press conference of
European Central Bank president Draghi, at which time he is
expected to unveil some new initiatives to support
financially troubled EU countries. Meantime, here in the
U.S. the market place is awaiting this afternoon’s release
of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. It’s not widely
expected those minutes will reveal anything new that would
further suggest another round of quantitative easing of U.S.
monetary policy is right around the corner. Most market
watchers are looking ahead to next week’s annual Jackson
Hole Federal Reserve confab, which will feature remarks from
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. It’s either at that time or at
the mid-September FOMC meeting that many hope the Fed
announces a new monetary stimulus plan—nicknamed QE3.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Some profit taking is seen today after
prices hit a four-year high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,413.20 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,424.60. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at
1,387.40. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Profit taking is seen today after
prices hit a four-year high Tuesday. Bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,777.25 and
then at Tuesday’s high of 2,802.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,761.50 and then at 2,750.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: There is some profit taking today but the bulls
still have upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 13,125 and
then at 13,100. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at the May high of 13,200 and then at 13,250.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 30/32 and then
at 147 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 146 12/32 and then at 146 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.29.0 and then at 133.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.20.0 and
then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective
bounce from solid losses seen Tuesday. Greenback bulls are
fading as a four-week-old downtrend line is in place on the
daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 82.25 and then at Tuesday’s high of
82.51. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
81.80 and then at 81.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today and are seeing a
corrective pullback from recent gains. Bulls still have some
upside near-term technical momentum. In October Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $97.07 and then at Tuesday’s high of
$97.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$96.00 and then at this week’s low of $95.32. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on a profit-
taking, corrective pullback from this week’s strong price
gains. Bulls still have some upside momentum, partly due to
focus this week is on the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop
Tour. Early results show very poor corn and soybean crops
in the Corn Belt. My bias is still that there is not much
upside room above the recent highs in the grains, on a
sustainable basis.
 

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