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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Jul 06, 2012

Friday, July 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Note: I am out of the office this morning. My friend and fellow
analyst/trader Ken Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken's style
is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll also benefit from Ken's
work.—Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower in subdued trading overnight as it the market
awaits the release of this morning’s unemployment data for near-term direction.
Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off
June’s low, the May 4th gap crossing at 2686.50 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 2574.11 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 2655.75. Second resistance is
the May 4th gap crossing at 2686.50. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 2588.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
2574.11.

The September S&P 500 index was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at 1395.50 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1333.74
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s
high crossing at 1374.90. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1395.50. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1339.94. Second support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 1333.74.

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds were higher in overnight trading while extending June’s trading
range. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 146-28 are needed to
confirm a downside breakout of June’s trading range while opening the door for
additional weakness near-term. If September turns higher, June’s high crossing at 152-
19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 150-09.
Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 152-19. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 147-21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 146-28.

ENERGY MARKETS

August crude oil was lower overnight as the IMF warned it will trim growth forecasts.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June’s
low, the 38% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 90.43 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.55 would temper
the near-term friendly outlook in August crude oil. First resistance is the 38%
retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 90.43. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 94.45. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 82.55. Second support is June’s low crossing at 77.28.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rebound off last
week’s low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, the
reaction high crossing at 83.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 82.38 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.45. Second resistance is June’s high
crossing at 84.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.38.
Second support is last Friday’s low crossing at 81.56.

GRAINS

December corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s rally. With the market overbought, there is the possibility that Thursday’s gap
could have marked an exhaustion gap. Initial support is the bottom of yesterday’s gap
crossing at 6.76. This coincides with broken resistance marked by last August’s high of
6.73 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this summer’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 7.37 1/2 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at
7.13. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 7.37 1/2. First support is
Thursday’s gap crossing at 6.76. Second support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 6.40 1/2.

December wheat was lower due to profit taking and spillover weakness from corn as it
consolidates some of this summer’s rally. Overnight lows fell short of filling
Thursday’s gap crossing at 8.15, which remains a downside objective for the day
session. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline
crossing at 8.90 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.29 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is
Thursday’s high crossing at 8.49 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of
the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 8.90 3/4. First support is Thursday’s gap crossing at
8.15. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.82 1/2.

November soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some
of this summer’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If November
extends the aforementioned rally, the 2008 high crossing at 16.54 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.92 1/4 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at
15.29. Second resistance is the 2008 high crossing at 16.54. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 14.41 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13.92 1/4.

 

 

 


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