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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Apr 4

Mar 28, 2013

Thursday Evening, April 4-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.90 at $122.30
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Cattle
futures bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and the bulls have much work to do to suggest a
price uptrend can be sustained. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $124.50.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $121.00. First resistance is seen at $123.00 and
then at today’s high of $123.35. First support is seen at
$122.00 and then at $121.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May feeder cattle closed down $0.65 at $146.92 today. Price
action today saw more profit taking from recent strong
gains. The feeder bulls still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$147.70. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $144.00. First resistance is seen at $146.50 and
then at $147.00. First support is seen at $145.50 and then
at $145.07. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

June lean hogs closed down $0.42 at $92.05 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did hit another six-week
high early on. While the hog bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, the hog bulls have gained
upside technical momentum recently, to begin to suggest
that a market bottom is in place. However, the bulls have
more work to do to suggest prices can sustain an uptrend.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$93.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$89.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.70
and then at $93.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$91.30 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 11 3/4 cents at
$6.29 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low
and hit a fresh nine-month low. Serious chart damage has
been inflicted recently and the bears have the solid
technical advantage. There are no early technical clues of
a market bottom being close at hand. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00.
First resistance for May corn is seen at $6.40 and then at
Thursday’s high of $6.44. First support is seen at $6.25
and then at $6.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents at $13.71 3/4 a bushel
Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh
three-month low. The soybean market bears have the near-
term technical advantage and gained have more downside
momentum this week. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $13.44. First resistance is
seen at Thursday’s high of $13.83 3/4 and then at $13.97
1/4. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $13.61 and
then at $13.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May soybean meal closed down $1.20 at $396.80 Thursday.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-month
low. The bears have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $406.30. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $387.80.
First resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of $399.30 and
then at $402.60. First support is seen at $395.10 and then
at Thursday’s low of $393.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May bean oil closed down 60 points at 48.56 cents Thursday.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 4.5-
month low. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 50.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 47.85 cents. First resistance is seen at
49.00 cents and then at Thursday’s high of 49.25 cents.
First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 48.25 cents and
then at 48.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1/4 cent at $6.96 3/4
Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The wheat bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.25 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $6.59 3/4. First
resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $7.05 1/2 and then
at $7.10. First support lies at Thursday’s low of $6.84 1/2
and then at $6.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May HRW wheat closed down 9 cents at $7.26 Thursday. Prices
closed nearer the session low. HRW bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is
seen at $7.37 1/2 and then at Thursday’s high of $7.43 1/2.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.04 1/2 and
then at $7.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May oats closed down 3 1/4 cents at $3.58 3/4 Thursday.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh 10-week low.
Oats bears now have the near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.50.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75.
First support lies at Thursday’s low of $3.55 and then at
$3.50. First resistance is seen at $3.60 and then at
Thursday’s high of $3.62 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 18 points at 17.68 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a
nearly 2.5-year low. The sugar bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
technical clues of a market low being close at hand. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 18.25 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 17.00
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
17.79 cents and then at 18.01 cents. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 17.47 cents and then at 17.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May coffee closed up 15 points at 139.60 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. The coffee bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
141.35 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of 132.05 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 140.00 cents and then at 141.35
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 137.45 cents
and then at this week’s low of 135.50 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

May cocoa closed down $11 at $2,139 a ton today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today on short covering
after hitting a fresh two-week low early on. The cocoa
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $2,225. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $2,124. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,149 and then at
$2,175. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,111 and
then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May cotton closed down 113 points at 88.08 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 90.27 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 86.12 cents. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 89.36 cents and then at this
week’s high of 89.70 cents. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 87.21 cents and then at 86.12 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May orange juice closed up 225 points at $1.4170 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh 3.5-month high close. The FCOJ bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at the December
high of $1.4415. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at this week’s low of $1.3115.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1.4200 and
then at $1.4300. First support is seen at $1.4000 and then
at today’s low of $1.3715. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May lumber futures closed up $2.70 at $379.00 today. Bulls
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
However, a three-week-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$372.50. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $394.40. First resistance
is seen at $380.00 and then at $383.00. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $375.00 and then at $372.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $0.60 an ounce at
$1,552.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a 10-month low early on. Short covering and
bargain hunting at the end of the day did lift gold up from
its daily low. Serious near term technical damage has been
inflicted this week. The gold bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside
near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $1,580.00. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,525.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,559.30 and then at
$1,570.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,539.40 and then at $1,530.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
2.0

May silver futures closed down $0.017 an ounce at $26.78
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
nine-month low early on. Silver bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as serious near-term
technical damage has been inflicted this week. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $27.50 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $26.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $27.015 and then at
$27.315. Next support is seen at today’s low of $26.575 and
then at $26.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 225 points at 335.55 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
contract low. Short covering in a bear market was featured
today. Copper bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 340.30 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 337.25
cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at
332.95 cents and then at today’s low of 330.60 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed down $1.32 at $93.13
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have faded
badly the past two days and have lost their near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close solid chart resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the March low of $89.78. First resistance is
seen at $94.00 and then at today’s high of $94.84. First
support is seen at today’s low of $92.12 and then at $91.84
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May heating oil closed down 371 points at $2.9650 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
four-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside momentum today. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the November low of
$2.9183. First resistance lies at $3.0000 and then at
today’s high of $3.0150. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2.9345 and then at $2.9183. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 185 points at
$2.8961 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh three-month low. The gasoline bears have quickly
gained the near-term technical advantage as prices are in
an accelerating seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the December low of
$2.7578. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.9310 and then at $2.9500. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8679 and then at $2.8500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

May natural gas closed up 4.0 cents at $3.94 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Nat gas bulls still
have the near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit
and need to show more power soon. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $4.121.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.75.
First resistance is seen at $3.985 and then at this week’s
high of $4.044. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.861 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 90 points at 1.2943 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today on short covering in a bear market.
Prices hit a fresh 4.5-month low early on and then rallied
to score a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart.
If the Euro sees good follow-through buying interest on
Friday and a bullish weekly high close then the bulls would
gain some fresh upside technical momentum. But right now
the Euro bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is still in place on
the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3100. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2700. First resistance for the
Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2956 and then at 1.3000.
Next support is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.2850.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 371 points at 1.0403
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low following a bearish reading on the
latest Bank of Japan meeting. Bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage and regained good downside
momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at this week’s
high of 1.0809. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 1.0345. First resistance is seen at 1.0500
and then at 1.0600. First support is seen at 1.0345 and
then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed up 65 points at 1.0658 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored
another big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar
chart. More short covering was featured. Good follow-
through buying and a bullish weekly high close on Friday
would provide the bulls with some fresh upside technical
momentum. The Swissy bears still have the near-term
technical advantage at present, however. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the March high of 1.0738. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the March
low of 1.0463. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0667 and then at 1.0700. First support is seen at 1.0600
and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June Australian dollar closed down 7 points at 1.0398
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at the January high of 1.0474. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0273.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0438 and
then at 1.0474. Next support is seen at this week’s low of
1.0327 and then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 36 points at .9877
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh six-week high and scored a bullish "outside day" up
on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at .9950. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at .9750. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9883 and then at
.9900. First support is seen at .9850 and then at today’s
low of .9818. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June British pound closed up 102 points at 1.5239
today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored
a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Good
follow-through buying on Friday and a bullish weekly high
close would give the bulls fresh upside near-term technical
momentum. But right now the bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of 1.5260.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.5000. First
resistance is seen at 1.5260 and then at 1.5300. First
support is seen at 1.5175 and then at today’s low of
1.5027. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .106 at 82.755
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today but did
hit a fresh 7.5-month high early on. Profit taking was
featured. The greenback bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of 83.660. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the March low of
81.830. Next resistance lies at 83.000 and then at 83.245.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 82.645 and then
at 82.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 31/32 at 146 8/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh
three-month high. Flight-to-quality buying was seen again
today, along with buying interest prompted by another
weaker-than-expected U.S. economic report today. Bond
market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The
next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears
is closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 144 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 146 10/32 and then at 147 even. First support is
seen at 146 even and then at 145 20/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 13.5 (32nds) at 132.26.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
four-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
December high of 133.01.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 131.23.5. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.28.0 and then at
133.01.0. First support is seen at 132.18.0 and then at
132.11.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. The latest "international incident" is North
Korea and its bellicose rhetoric toward the U.S. and South
Korea. That and some weak U.S. economic data somewhat
limited buying interest in the stock indexes today. North
Korea has this week publicly threatened to attack the U.S.
with nuclear missiles and is also threatening South Korea.
The U.S. says it is taking North Korea’s threats seriously
and has dispatched military assets to the region
surrounding North Korea. Traders and investors are awaiting
Friday morning’s release of the U.S. Labor Department’s
employment situation report, which is arguably the most
important U.S. economic report of the month. The consensus
forecast for that report calls for the key non-farm
payrolls figure to have risen by 200,000 in March, with the
overall unemployment rate unchanged from the previous
month, at 7.7%. The weaker-than-expected ADP report
Wednesday has many analysts ratcheting back expectations
for Friday’s Labor Department jobs report. In news
overnight, the Bank of Japan embarked on more monetary
easing at its latest policy meeting. The move was not
unexpected but the BOJ did act more aggressively to ease
monetary policy than many expected. The BOJ move is an
underlying bullish factor for the raw commodity sector. The
European Central Bank and Bank of England also hold
monetary policy meetings Thursday.  Both the BOE and ECB
left their interest rates and monetary policies unchanged.
The Euro currency fell against the U.S. dollar following
more downbeat economic news coming out of the European
Union Thursday. German and French purchasing managers’ data
came in weaker than expected. Most agree the Euro zone is
presently in a full blown economic recession.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 0.75 at 2,786.25
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the September high of 2,871.75. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
2,711.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,801.50 and then at this week’s high of 2,823.00. First
support is seen at 2,771.00 and then at 2,750.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 6.50 at 1,555.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the all-time high of 1,586.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,520.00. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1,568.00 and then at 1,575.00.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 1,544.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,539.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 48 points at 14,535 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 14,750. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 14,000. First resistance
in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 14,600 and then at
14,650. First support is seen at this week’s low of 14,455
and then at 14,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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