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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 1

Apr 01, 2013

Monday Evening, April 1-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.27 at $124.10
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a
fresh four-week high early on. The market was boosted
sharply late last week on short covering, bargain hunting
and by a bearish USDA report for corn on Thursday that has
sunk corn prices sharply. There are technical clues that a
market bottom is in place for cattle. However, cattle
futures bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and the bulls have work to do to suggest a price
uptrend can be sustained. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $125.90. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$122.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$124.50 and then at $124.75. First support is seen at
today’s low of $123.77 and then at $123.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

May feeder cattle closed up $2.60 at $147.67 today. Prices
hit a fresh four-week high today and closed near the
session high. The feeders market has been boosted sharply
by sharply lower corn prices the past two sessions. The
feeder bulls have quickly gained the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $150.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $145.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $147.70 and then at
$148.00. First support is seen at $147.00 and then at
today’s low of $146.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

June lean hogs closed up $0.50 at $91.57 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a three-week
high on short covering. Prices also scored a bullish
"outside day" up on the daily bar chart. While the hog
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
the June hog bulls have gained upside technical momentum to
begin to suggest that a market bottom is in place. However,
the bulls have more work to do to suggest prices can
sustain an uptrend. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at the March high of $92.12.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $89.00.
First resistance is seen at $92.12 and then at $92.50.
First support is seen at $91.00 and then at today’s low of
$90.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 50 cents at $6.45
1/4 Monday. Prices careened to a fresh nine-month low in
the wake of a very bearish USDA corn stocks report last
Thursday. Very serious chart damage has been inflicted and
now the bears have the solid technical advantage heading
into the critical planting and growing season in the U.S.
Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at Monday’s
high of $6.79. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.25. First resistance for May corn
is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support is seen
at Monday’s low of $6.36 1/2 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

May soybeans closed down 12 1/4 cents at $13.92 1/2 a
bushel Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
a fresh 10-week low. A bearish USDA report for soybeans and
sharply lower trade in corn futures have worked to sink
soybeans. The soybean market bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $14.59 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
$13.44. First resistance is seen at $14.00 and then at
Monday’s high of $14.08 1/4. First support is seen at
Monday’s low of $13.86 1/4 and then at $13.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

May soybean meal closed down $5.60 at $399.00 Monday.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 10-
week low Monday. The bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $410.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $387.80.
First resistance comes in at $402.10 and then at $405.00.
First support is seen at Monday’s low of $396.40 and then
at $395.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May bean oil closed up 1 point at 50.12 cents Monday.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bean oil bulls have
faded a bit. Bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 51.03 cents. Bean
oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at 49.03 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high
of 50.50 cents and then at 50.78 cents. First support is
seen at 49.75 cents and then at 49.52 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 23 3/4 cents at $6.64
Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a
fresh contract low. Sharply lower corn prices have hit the
wheat market hard, too. The wheat bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at
$6.75 and then at Monday’s high of $6.88 3/4. First support
lies at Monday’s low of $6.59 3/4 and then at $6.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May HRW wheat closed down 17 1/4 cents at $7.09 1/2 Monday.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 9.5-
month low Monday. HRW bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.35. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen
at Monday’s high of $7.29 and then at $7.40. First support
is seen at Monday’s low of $7.04 1/2 and then at $7.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May oats closed down the 20-cent limit at $3.76 1/4 Monday.
Prices hit a fresh three-week low today and have been
pressured by the bigger grains getting hammered lower the
past two sessions. Oats bulls have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage but are fading very fast. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $3.58 1/4. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.95. First support lies at
$3.75 and then at $3.70. First resistance is seen at $3.80
and then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed steady at 17.66 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices last
Thursday hit a nearly 2.5-year low. The sugar bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 18.50 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 17.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 17.79
cents and then at 18.01 cents. First support is seen at
last week’s low of 17.56 cents and then at 17.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May coffee closed up 40 points at 137.55 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did pop to a fresh
two-week high early on. Tepid short covering in a bear
market was featured. The coffee bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at today’s high of 141.35 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 132.05 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 138.80 cents and then at 140.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 135.50 cents
and then at last week’s low of 134.65 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

May cocoa closed up $3 at $2,173 a ton. Prices closed near
the session low today and did hit a fresh seven-week high
early on. The cocoa bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bulls gained some upside
momentum just recently. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,200. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $2,124. First resistance is seen at $2,200
and then at $2,225. First support is seen at $2,142 and
then at last week’s low of $2,124. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

May cotton closed down 107 points at 87.39 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw profit
taking. The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the sharp sell off in the
grain markets the past two sessions has spilled over into
selling pressure in the cotton market. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 90.27 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 85.59 cents. First resistance is
seen at 88.00 cents and then at 89.00 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 87.26 cents and then at last
week’s low of 86.12 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May orange juice closed down 50 points at $1.3465 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
three-week low early on. The FCOJ bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the March high of $1.4030. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at today’s low of $1.3115.
First resistance is seen at $1.3600 and then at today’s
high of $1.3785. First support is seen at $1.3300 and then
at $1.3200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May lumber futures closed down $5.40 at $385.80 today.
Prices closed near the session low on profit taking. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of $379.50. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $400.00. First
resistance is seen at $390.00 and then at today’s high of
$394.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $385.00
and then at $382.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed up $5.20 an ounce at
$1,600.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today in quieter trading. Gold was supported by some safe-
haven buying and by a weaker U.S. dollar index today. The
gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $1,618.30. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,577.00. First
resistance is seen at last Thursday’s high of $1,608.30 and
then at last week’s high of $1,614.50. First support is
seen at last week’s low of $1,590.40 and then at $1,585.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0

May silver futures closed down $0.378 an ounce at $27.945
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh eight-month low. Silver bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
today. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $28.89 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $27.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $28.36 and then at $28.50. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $27.81 and then at $27.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 290 points at 337.30 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
eight-month low. Copper bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
today. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 348.65 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August 2012 low of
332.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and
then at 342.50 cents. First support is seen at 335.00 cents
and then at today’s low of 334.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed down $0.33 at $96.89
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and scored a
mildly bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart
after hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Mild profit
taking was featured. Crude oil bulls still have the near-
term technical advantage. A steep four-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close solid chart resistance at $99.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $93.70.
First resistance is seen at $97.00 and then at today’s high
of $97.80. First support is seen at $96.00 and then at
$95.58. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May heating oil closed up 275 points at $3.0745 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
two-week high. Bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $3.1026. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.0000. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.0902 and then at $3.1026. First
support is seen at $3.0500 and then at today’s low of
$3.0181. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 145 points at
$3.0961 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The gasoline bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Prices are still in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.1750. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at the March low of $3.0151. First resistance is
seen at $3.1250 and then at today’s high of $3.1425. First
support is seen at $3.0700 and then at $3.0500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

May natural gas closed up 0.9 cent at $4.033 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Prices Thursday hit a
fresh 15-month high. Cold weather over much of the U.S. is
still bullish for nat gas. Nat gas bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $4.20. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $3.885.
First resistance is seen at $4.05 and then at last week’s
high of $4.121. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.934 and then at $3.885. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 31 points at 1.2854 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today on short covering. Prices last week
hit a 4.5-month low. The Euro bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
1.3094. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2700. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.2875 and then at 1.2900. Next support is seen at last
week’s low of 1.2758 and then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 86 points at 1.0719 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. While bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage the bulls are working on a
fledgling two-week-old uptrend, to begin to suggest that a
market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.0900. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 1.0345. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0740 and then at 1.0800. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0601 and then at last week’s low of
1.0536. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The June Swiss franc closed up 27 points at 1.0573 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. The Swissy bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the March high of 1.0738. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0300. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1.0585 and then at 1.0600. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0506 and then at the
March low of 1.0463. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 9 points at 1.0362
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the January
high of 1.0474. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0273. First resistance is seen at 1.0398 and
then at last week’s high of 1.0432. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0327 and then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

The June Canadian dollar closed down 2 points at .9819
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in
quieter trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. A four-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9900. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9750. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of .9849 and then at .9870. First support
is seen at .9790 and then at .9768. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The June British pound closed up 59 points at 1.5224 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.5311. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.5000. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.5260 and then
at 1.5311. First support is seen at last week’s low of
1.5085 and then at last week’s low of 1.5019. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .275 at 82.900
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking. Prices last week hit a 7.5-month high.
The greenback bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 84.000.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
March low of 81.830. Next resistance lies at last week’s
high of 83.520 and then at 83.750. First support is seen at
today’s low of 82.81 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 12/32 at 144 27/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh
three-month high today. Bonds have seen good safe-haven
demand recently. Bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 142 20/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 146 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 145 1/32 and then at
145 16/32. First support is seen at 144 16/32 and then at
today’s low of 144 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 5.0 (32nds) at 132.04.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices last
week hit a 3.5-month high. Notes bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum on safe-haven buying. Bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 131.03.0.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.08.0 and
then at last week’s high of 132.11.0. First support is seen
at 132.00.0 and then at today’s low of 131.23.5. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today on profit taking. The Dow and S&P indexes hit
new for-the-move highs today. The North Korean situation is
not a full blown geopolitical crisis—at least not yet—but
the matter is of serious enough consequence that traders
are taking a "risk-off" attitude early this week. North
Korea’s rhetoric will continue to be closely monitored by
the market place, and could turn more serious very quickly.
U.S. economic data released Monday included the U.S.
manufacturing PMI, construction spending and the ISM
manufacturing report on business. Overall, that data was
just a bit on the weak side, which was also mildly bearish
for the stock indexes. The Cyprus bank bailout situation
has calmed down for the moment, with most of Europe on
vacation for the Easter holiday Monday. However, the
overall European Union sovereign debt crisis remains as an
undercurrent in the risk assessment of the market place.
In overnight news, China’s official purchasing managers’
index was 50.9 in March, which is up from 50.1 in February
but just below market expectations. Traders and investors
are looking ahead to Friday’s release of the U.S.
employment situation report, which is arguably the most
important U.S. economic report of the month.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 23.25 at
2,787.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar
chart. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of
2,817.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of 2,711.75. First resistance is seen at 2,800.00
and then at 2,817.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of 2,784.25 and last week’s low of 2,771.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 7.20 at 1,555.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low and did poke to a
fresh five-year high early on today. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,575.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,520.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,564.60 and then at 1,575.00. First
support is seen at 1,549.90 and then at last week’s low of
1,539.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed down 8 points at 14,489 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another new
record high early on. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 14,600. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 14,150. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 14,530 and then at 14,550. First
support is seen at today’s low of 14,460 and then at
14,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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