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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 16

Apr 17, 2012

Monday Evening, April 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.07 at $116.15
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid
short covering in a bear market. Bulls have more work to do
soon to begin to suggest that a market bottom is in place.
Cattle bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $118.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $113.95.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $116.50 and
then at $117.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$115.35 and then at $114.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May feeder cattle closed up $0.40 at $151.92 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Short covering and bargain
hunting were featured and the bulls have gained some upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest a market low is in
place. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above technical resistance at
$155.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $150.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $152.75 and then at $153.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $151.35 and then at $151.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

June lean hogs closed down $1.50 at $88.72 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low again today and hit a fresh
13-month low. Bears have quickly regained downside power
amid deteriorating cash hog market fundamentals. Hog market
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $91.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $87.00. First resistance is seen at
$89.00 and then at today’s high of $89.90. First support is
seen at today’s low of $88.35 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 8 1/4 cents at
$6.21 today. Prices closed near the session low again today
and hit a fresh two-week low. Beneficial moisture that fell
and that is forecast to fall in the coming days is bearish
for the corn market. Fresh near-term technical damage has
been inflicted in the corn market and the bears have the
near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.45. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the March
low of $6.03. First resistance for May corn is seen at
$6.25 and then at today’s high of $6.29. First support is
seen at today’s low of $6.21 and then at $6.15. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

May soybeans closed down 15 1/2 cents at $14.21 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw profit-taking pressure from recent gains, and on
some beneficial moisture that fell in the Corn Belt over
the weekend, with more in the forecast. Bean bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bean
prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2011
contract high of $14.68 1/2 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $14.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.35 3/4 and
then at last Friday’s high of $14.47 3/4. First support is
seen at last week’s low of $14.15 and then at $14.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed down $3.50 at $392.30 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw profit taking.
Meal bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $400.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $380.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $395.90 and then at last week’s high
of $397.40. First support is seen at $390.00 and then at
last week’s low of $385.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed down 86 points at 55.66 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. Profit taking was featured. Bean oil bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 57.45 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
54.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and
then at 56.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 55.60 cents and then at 55.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 7 1/4 cents at $6.16 1/4
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Wheat bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.53 1/4
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the March low of $6.11 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.25 1/2 and
then at $6.35. First support lies at today’s low of $6.15
and then at $6.11 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 12 1/2 cents at $6.30 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh contract low. The bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.53. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen
at $6.38 1/2 and then at today’s high of $6.43 1/2. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.30 1/2 and then at
$6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May oats closed down 4 3/4 cents at $3.23 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh four-
week low. Bulls are fading and are back on a level near-
term playing field with the bears. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.10. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$3.42. First support lies at $3.22 and then at $3.20. First
resistance is seen at $3.25 and then at today’s high of
$3.27 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 46 points at 22.91 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage and have gained fresh downside power just
recently. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 24.00 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 22.25 cents. First
resistance is seen at 23.00 cents and then at 23.26 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 22.85 cents and
then at 22.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May coffee closed down 395 points at 175.25 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 18-month low.
Coffee prices are in a seven-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 190.45 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 177.50 cents and then at
today’s high of 180.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 172.65 cents and then at 170.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May cocoa closed up $15 at $2,263 a ton. Prices closed near
mid-range today and hit a fresh three-week high. The market
saw more short covering. Cocoa bears still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are
gaining upside momentum. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,400. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $2,144. First resistance is seen at $2,300
and then at today’s high of $2,307. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2,222 and then at $2,200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

May cotton closed down the 400-point limit at 88.08 cents
today. Prices hit a fresh four-week low today and the bulls
have faded badly in short order. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the 92.50 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the March low of 87.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 89.00 cents and then at 89.50 cents. First support is
seen at 87.50 cents and then at 87.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

May orange juice closed down 40 points at $1.4600 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices last
week hit a contract and 1.5-year low. Very serious near-
term chart damage has been inflicted in FCOJ recently.
Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.5500. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.3500. First resistance is
seen at $1.4750 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen
at today’s low of $1.4520 and then at $1.4250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

May lumber futures closed down $0.30 at $266.40 today. The
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of $254.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$275.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$270.00 and then at $272.50. First support is seen at
$264.00 and then at last week’s low of $262.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $11.20 an ounce at
$1,649.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as the
bulls are fading again. Bears are working on re-
establishing a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bears have regained the slight near-term
technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the April high of $1,685.40. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below technical support at the April low of $1,613.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,659.60 and
then at $1,670.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,642.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,632.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May silver futures closed up $0.005 an ounce at $31.395
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. The bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of $33.295 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$30.98. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $31.70
and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$31.175 and then at $30.98. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 30 points 363.00 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high and saw tepid short
covering from recent strong selling pressure. Prices hit a
three-month low early on today. Copper bears still have the
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 380.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 365.00 cents and then at 367.50
cents. First support is seen at 360.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 356.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed up $0.16 a barrel at
$102.99 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. A lower
U.S. dollar index supported crude today. However, a six-
week-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $106.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below major
psychological support at $100.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $103.37 and then at $104.00. First
support is seen at $102.00 and then at today’s low of
101.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May heating oil closed down 543 points at $3.1203 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the April high of $3.2610.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below major psychological support at $3.0000. First
resistance lies at $3.1500 and then at today’s high of
$3.1746. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1135
and then at $3.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 795 points at
$3.2666 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
April high of $3.4278. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $3.1900.
First resistance is seen at $3.3000 and then at $3.3250.
First support is seen at $3.2500 and then at last week’s
low of $3.2317. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May natural gas closed up 3.6 cents at $2.016 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a contract and
10-year low. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a
market low is close at hand. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.25. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $1.75. First resistance is seen
at $2.069 and then at $2.10. First support is seen at
Friday’s contract low of $1.959 and then at $1.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 62 points at 1.3144 today. Prices closed near the
session high today after hitting a fresh two-month low
early on. Bulls are on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bears. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3300. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at today’s low of 1.3000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3154 and
then at 1.3200. Next support is seen at 1.3100 and then at
1.3037. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 98 points at 1.2434 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
six-week high. Bulls have gained some upside near-term
technical momentum recently to suggest an uptrend can be
sustained. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.2600. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.2200. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2462 and then at
1.2500. First support is seen at 1.2400 and then at today’s
low of 1.2353. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Swiss franc closed up 63 points at 1.0945 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh four-week low early on. The bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the April high of 1.1119. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at today’s low
of 1.0817. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0952 and then at last week’s high of 1.1009. First
support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0854. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 20 points at 1.0291
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0461. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0150. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0380 and then at 1.0461. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0239 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 13 points at .9990
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at the April high of 1.0097. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at .9800.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0013 and then
at last week’s high of 1.0060. First support is seen at
today’s low of .9954 and then at last week’s low of .9933.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June British pound closed up 51 points at 1.5897 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
1.6056. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the April low of
1.5797. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5906
and then at last week’s high of 1.5979. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5813 and then at 1.5797. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 33 points at 79.72
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field
amid choppy and sideways trading. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 80.38. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
78.79. Next resistance lies at 80.00 and then at 80.38.
First support is seen at today’s low of 79.67 and then at
last week’s low of 79.36. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 13/32 at 141 27/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-
week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 139 even. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 142 10/32. First
resistance is seen at 142 10/32 and then at 142 16/32.
First support is seen at today’s low of 141 13/32 and then
at 141 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 4.0 (32nds) at 131.21.0 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-
week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
the January and February high of 132.05.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
131.29.0 and then at 132.05.5. First support is seen at
today’s low of 131.15.0 and then at 131.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today on some more profit taking pressure. Stock
index bulls are fading a bit, amid some fresh worries about
U.S. economic growth and the European Union sovereign debt
crisis.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 29.75 at
2,663.75. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh four-week low. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the March low of 2,575.00. First resistance is seen at
2,685.00 and then at today’s high of 2,710.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,656.50 and then at
2,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 1.10 at 1,363.90.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,425.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the March low of 1,338.80. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,375.00 and then at
last week’s high of 1,388.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,360.70 and then at last week’s low of
1,352.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 62 points at 12,850 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,920 and then at last week’s high
of 12,953. First support is seen at today’s low of 12,830
and then at 12,800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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