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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 18

Apr 19, 2012

Wednesday Evening, April 18-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $1.72 at $114.85
today. Prices closed near the session low. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the cattle market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Bears gained fresh downside technical momentum today
and possess the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $117.70. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $113.95. First resistance is seen at
$115.35 and then at $116.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $114.80 and then at $114.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

May feeder cattle closed down $1.12 at $152.00 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at $154.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$150.00. First resistance is seen at $152.50 and then at
$153.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$151.35 and then at $151.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

June lean hogs closed down $2.42 at $87.35 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit another fresh 13-
month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the
hog market today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were lower. Hog bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. Prices are in a steep seven-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$85.80. First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at
$88.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.30 and
then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 13 3/4 cents at
$5.93 1/2 today. Prices again closed near the session low
today and hit a fresh five-month low. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the corn market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Serious near-term technical damage has been
inflicted in the corn market and the bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.10. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $5.91. First resistance for July corn is
seen at $6.00 and then at $6.02 1/2. First support is seen
at $5.91 and then at $5.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July soybeans closed down 16 3/4 cents at $14.14 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today,
hit a fresh nearly three-week low and scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the bean market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. The bean market got another fresh USDA export sale
announcement for soybeans today, but sold off anyway. Any
time a market sells off on fresh bullish fundamental news,
that’s a significantly bearish clue. Bean bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bean prices are
still in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the April high of $14.53 1/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at $14.25 and
then at today’s high of $14.40. First support is seen at
today’s low of $14.09 1/2 and then at $14.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

July soybean meal closed down $4.30 at $393.00 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and did score a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Meal bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $400.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $380.00. First resistance comes
in at $395.00 and then at last week’s high of $399.30.
First support is seen at today’s low of $390.00 and then at
last week’s low of $386.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

July bean oil closed down 55 points at 55.61 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a
fresh nearly three-week low. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the bean oil market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Bean oil
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 57.00 cents. Bean oil bears'
next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at 54.50
cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 56.48 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 55.55 cents and then at 55.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 4 3/4 cents at $6.15 1/2
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
contract low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
the wheat market today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer
and crude oil prices were lower. Wheat bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.40 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.23 1/4 and then at this week’s high of
$6.32. First support lies at today’s contract low of $6.09
1/4 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents at $6.34 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh 9.5-month low. The bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.75. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $6.44 1/2 and then at $6.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.33 1/4 and then at
$6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July oats closed down 1/2 cent at $3.23 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh four-week low.
Bulls are fading and bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.12 3/4. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.39.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.22 and then at
$3.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.25
and then at this week’s high of $3.28. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 57 points at 22.00 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a
fresh four-month low and scored a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 23.58 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
21.95 cents. First resistance is seen at 22.20 cents and
then at 22.45 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 21.95 cents and then at 21.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

July coffee closed steady at 174.70 cents. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Not much new. Coffee prices
are in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
April high of 193.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 170.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 178.40 cents and then at 180.00
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 173.90
cents and then at 172.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0

July cocoa closed down $40 at $2,241 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and did hit another fresh
three-week high early on. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the cocoa market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Cocoa
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $2,350. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $2,168.
First resistance is seen at $2,250 and then at today’s high
of $2,293. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,232
and then at $2,218. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July cotton closed up 177 points at 90.02 cents today.
Prices hit a fresh two-week high today and then backed off
to close near mid-range. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field amid very choppy trading.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
94.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 86.55 cents. First
resistance is seen at 91.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 92.25 cents. First support is seen at 89.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 88.24 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

July orange juice closed down 75 points at $1.4630 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in FCOJ recently. Bears still
have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.5500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.3500. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1.4880 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $1.4500 and then at $1.4250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May lumber futures closed up $5.60 at $266.00 today. Prices
closed near the session low. The bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the March
low of $254.00. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $275.00. First resistance is seen
at $268.00 and then at the April high of $270.00. First
support is seen at $264.00 and then at $262.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $11.10 an ounce at
$1,640.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the gold
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude
oil prices were lower. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the April high of $1,685.40. Bears' next
near-term downside price objective is closing prices below
technical support at the April low of $1,613.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,655.20 and then at
this week’s high of $1,659.60. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $1,635.20 and then at last week’s low of
$1,632.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May silver futures closed down $0.229 an ounce at $31.445
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the silver market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were lower. The silver bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of $33.295 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$30.98. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$31.91 and then at last week’s high of $32.58. Next support
is seen at this week’s low of $31.175 and then at $30.98.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 200 points 362.70 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the copper market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were lower. Copper bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 380.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 365.00
cents and then at today’s high of 367.45 cents. First
support is seen at 360.00 cents and then at this week’s low
of 356.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $1.49 a barrel at
$103.15 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
amid the bearish factor of a stronger U.S. dollar index
today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $106.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below major
psychological support at $100.00. First resistance is seen
at $104.00 and then at $105.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $102.63 and then at 102.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

June heating oil closed down 65 points at $3.1243 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
$3.2666. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below major psychological support at
$3.0500. First resistance lies at $3.1397 and then at
$3.1500. First support is seen at $3.1000 and then at last
week’s low of $3.0885. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 224 points at
$3.1528 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
hit a fresh two-month low today. Bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are
fading. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $3.2913. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$3.0500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.1752 and then at $3.2000. First support is seen at
$3.1250 and then at today’s low of $3.0985. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

June natural gas closed down 0.9 cents at $2.039 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh contract and 10-year low. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
clues to suggest a market low is close at hand. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.25. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1.75. First
resistance is seen at $2.10 and then at this week’s high of
$2.128. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$2.036 and then at $2.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 22 points at 1.3121 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today. Bulls are on a level near-term
technical playing field with the bears. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3300. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at this week’s low of
1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3178 and
then at 1.3200. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3061 and then at 1.3037. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 69 points at 1.2314
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
profit taking after prices Monday hit a six-week high.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2500. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2200. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2373 and then at 1.2400. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1.2266 and then at 1.2200.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 21 points at 1.0923 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the April high of
1.1119. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of 1.0817. First resistance is seen at
1.0967 and then at last week’s high of 1.1009. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0866 and then at
1.0817. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 59 points at 1.0285
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0461. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0150. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0346
and then at last week’s high of 1.0380. Next support is
seen at 1.0235 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 18 points at 1.0074
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at the March high of 1.0133. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
.9933. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0105
and then at this week’s high of 1.0125. First support is
seen at 1.0050 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The June British pound closed up 73 points at 1.6016 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-
week high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained some fresh upside momentum today. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
April high of 1.6056. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the April low of 1.5797. First resistance is seen at 1.6056
and then at 1.6100. First support is seen at 1.5950 and
then at today’s low of 1.5889. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 10 points at 79.73
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field amid choppy and sideways trading. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the April high of 80.38. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the April
low of 78.79. Next resistance lies at 80.00 and then at
80.38. First support is seen at 79.56 and then at last
week’s low of 79.36. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 15/32 at 141 24/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 139 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
March high of 142 10/32. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 141 30/32 and then at this week’s high of
142 9/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 141 5/32
and then at 140 26/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 4.5 (32nds) at 131.18.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the January and February
high of 132.05.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 130.16.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.22.0 and then at this week’s high of
131.29.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 131.09.5
and then at 131.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today as it was a “risk off” trading day today. The
market place is awaiting a key Spanish bond auction and its
results on Thursday, which could be a market-mover for the
stock indexes and other markets.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 16.50 at
2,696.00. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the March low of 2,575.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,728.25 and then at
last week’s high of 2,748.00. First support is seen at
2,675.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,654.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 5.10 at 1,378.50.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,425.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the March low of 1,338.80. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,388.70 and then
at 1,400.00. First support is seen at 1,370.00 and then at
this week’s low of 1,359.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed down 67 points at 12,957 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 13,220. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 12,650.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 13,000 and then at
today’s high of 13,035. First support is seen at 12,900 and
then at this week’s low of 12,830. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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