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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 23

Apr 24, 2012

Monday Evening, April 23-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.85 at $114.60
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
11-month low. Cattle were pressured by the “risk off”
trading day in the market place today, and the fact the key
outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude oil market and
firmer U.S. dollar index. Cattle bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
$117.70. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of $113.00. First
resistance is seen at $115.00 and then at today’s high of
$115.50. First support is seen at $114.00 and then at
today’s low of $113.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $150.85 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above technical resistance at the April high of $153.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$150.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$151.62 and then at $152.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $150.55 and then at $150.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

June lean hogs closed up $0.40 at $87.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Prices hit a 13-month low early on. Hogs
were pressured by the “risk off” trading day in the market
place today, and the fact the key outside markets were
bearish—a weaker crude oil market and firmer U.S. dollar
index. Hog bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid
chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $85.80.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.35 and then
at $89.00. First support is seen at $87.00 and then at
today’s low of $86.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 7 cents at $6.10
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market and on some fresh export demand
for U.S. corn. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.25. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $5.91 3/4.
First resistance for July corn is seen at today’s high of
$6.12 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $6.19. First
support is seen at $6.06 1/2 and then at the March low of
$6.02 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July soybeans closed down 9 1/4 cents at $14.40 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session low today on
profit taking. Soybeans were pressured by the “risk off”
trading day in the market place today, and the fact the key
outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude oil market and
firmer U.S. dollar index. Bean bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices hit an eight-
month high on Friday. Bean prices are still in a four-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $14.70 3/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$14.00. First resistance is seen at $14.50 and then at last
week’s high of $14.58 3/4. First support is seen at $14.30
and then at $14.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

July soybean meal closed down $6.50 at $403.40 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking.
Meal bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices Friday soared to a contract high and are
in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$415.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $390.00. First resistance comes in at $405.00
and then at $407.50. First support is seen at $402.50 and
then at $400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

July bean oil closed down 79 points at 55.49 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
three-week low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart today. Bean oil bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 57.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 54.50
cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 56.36 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 55.33 cents and then at 55.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.32 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, my
bias is that a market low is in place or close at hand.
Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$6.50 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $6.35 and then at $6.40. First
support lies at $6.25 and then at $6.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.45 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.75. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of $6.52 and then at $6.60. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.36 3/4 and then at
last week’s low of $6.33 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July oats closed up 2 1/2 cents at $3.26 3/4 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.12 3/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.39. First
support lies at today’s and last week’s low of $3.22 and
then at $3.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.28 1/2 and then at $3.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 4 points at 21.59 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
11-month low. Gains were limited by the “risk off” trading
day in the market place today, and the fact the key outside
markets were bearish—a weaker crude oil market and firmer
U.S. dollar index. Sugar bears still have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 22.92 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 21.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 21.85 cents and then
at 22.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
21.41 cents and then at 21.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

July coffee closed down 25 points at 178.70 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Coffee was pressured by the
“risk off” trading day in the market place today, and the
fact the key outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude
oil market and firmer U.S. dollar index. Coffee prices are
in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at the April
high of 193.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 170.00 cents a pound. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 180.60 cents and then at 182.50
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 176.60 cents
and then at last week’s low of 173.90 cents and then at
172.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed down $73 at $2,196 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Cocoa was pressured by the
“risk off” trading day in the market place today, and the
fact the key outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude
oil market and firmer U.S. dollar index. Cocoa bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,300.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $2,168. First resistance is seen at
$2,225 and then at $2,250. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2,183 and then at $2,150. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

July cotton closed up 147 points at 92.48 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh
three-week high today. Bulls now have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 94.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the April
low of 86.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 92.84 cents and then at 93.50 cents. First support
is seen at 92.00 cents and then at 91.50 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

July orange juice closed down 940 points at $1.4125 today.
Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh
contract low close today. FCOJ was pressured by the “risk
off” trading day in the market place today, and the fact
the key outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude oil
market and firmer U.S. dollar index. FCOJ bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.5500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the April contract low of $1.3930. First
resistance is seen at $1.4250 and then at $1.4500. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.4065 and then at
$1.3930. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May lumber futures closed down $1.70 at $270.00 today. The
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. Prices Friday hit a fresh five-week high. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $260.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $275.00. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of $272.80 and then at $275.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $269.00 and then at
$266.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $10.00 an ounce at
$1,632.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
a fresh two-week low. Gold was pressured by the “risk off”
trading day in the market place, and the fact the key
outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude oil market and
firmer U.S. dollar index. Gold bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at the April high of $1,685.40.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below technical support at the April low of
$1,613.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,644.20 and then at $1,650.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,623.60 and then at $1,613.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

May silver futures closed down $1.096 an ounce at $30.55
today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a
fresh three-month low and saw a bearish downside “breakout”
from a sideways and choppy trading range. The bears gained
downside momentum today. Silver was pressured by the “risk
off” trading day in the market place, and the fact the key
outside markets were bearish—a weaker crude oil market and
firmer U.S. dollar index. The silver bears have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $32.58 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is
seen at $31.00 and then at $31.175. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $30.45 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 710 points 362.70 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Copper was
pressured by the “risk off” trading day in the market
place, and the fact the key outside markets were bearish—a
weaker crude oil market and firmer U.S. dollar index.
Copper bears have the near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 380.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 365.00 cents and
then at 367.50 cents. First support is seen at 360.00 cents
and then at last week’s low of 356.90 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $0.90 a barrel at
$102.98 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at $106.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below major psychological support at
$100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$103.90 and then at $104.68. First support is seen at
today’s low of $101.82 and then at the April low of 101.22.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

June heating oil closed up 39 points at $3.1447 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
$3.2666. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below major psychological support at
$3.0500. First resistance lies at $3.1623 and then at
$3.1750. First support is seen at $3.1250 and then at
today’s low of $3.1090. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 347 points at
$3.1447 today. Prices closed near the session high after
hitting a fresh nine-week low early on. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. However,
prices have been trending lower for four weeks. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2913. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $3.0500. First resistance is seen at
$3.1750 and then at $3.2000. First support is seen at
$3.1000 and then at today’s low of $3.0744. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

June natural gas closed up 9.2 cents at $2.107 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a contract and
10-year low. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are still no early clues to
suggest a market low is close at hand. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.25. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1.75. First
resistance is seen at $2.15 and then at $2.20. First
support is seen at today’s of $2.005 and then at the
contract low of $1.982. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 70 points at 1.3148 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today. Bulls are on a level near-term technical
playing field with the bears. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3300. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at the April low of 1.3000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3200 and then at last
week’s high of 1.3232. Next support is seen at today’s low
of 1.3107 and then at 1.3060. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 68 points at 1.2331 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the April high of
1.2462. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.2200. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2356 and then at
1.2400. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2251 and
then at last week’s low of 1.2233. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 63 points at 1.0944 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the April high of 1.1119.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the April
low of 1.0817. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 1.1016 and then at 1.1060. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0910 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 58 points at 1.0249
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
1.0150. First resistance is seen at 1.0300 and then at
1.0348. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0210 and
then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 13 points at 1.0070
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the March high of 1.0133.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the April
low of .9933. First resistance is seen at 1.0100 and then
at last week’s high of 1.0125. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0009 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

The June British pound closed up 17 points at 1.6120 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a fresh
eight-month high close today. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh upside
momentum recently. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.6250. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.6000. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.6146 and then at 1.6200. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.6071 and then at 1.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 23 points at 79.54
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field amid
choppy and sideways trading. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 80.38. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
78.79. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 79.77 and
then at 80.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of
79.22 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 24/32 at 142 23/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
11-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 141 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 144 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 143 4/32 and then at
143 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 142 1/32
and then at 141 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 10.0 (32nds) at 131.31.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 11-
week high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the January and February high of 132.05.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.16.0. First resistance is seen at 132.05.5 and then at 
132.16.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 131.22.5
and then at 131.18.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: It was a “risk off” trading
day in the market place Monday, as the European Union is
again in focus. French elections on Sunday showed President
Sarkozy with second- place finish behind a Socialist party
candidate. Most believe a Socialist leadership in France
would find that country backing off on its firm commitment
to resolve the EU debt crisis. There was also very weak
economic data coming out of the EU Monday that suggests the
EU is mired in a recession. And the U.S. has its own stock
market worries as Wal Mart is accused of major bribery in
Mexico. All that made for a skittish market place Monday,
which was bearish for the stock indexes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 22.75 at
2,651.50. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh seven-week low. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of 2,575.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,675.00 and then at Friday’s high of 2,708.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,625.00 and then
at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 12.20 at 1,363.00.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the March low of 1,338.80. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,374.60 and then at last week’s
high of 1,390.00. First support is seen at the April low of
1,352.50 and then at 1,338.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 117 points at 12,871 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 13,220. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 12,650.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 12,900 and then at
12,950. First support is seen at 12,830 and then at 12,800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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