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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 25

Apr 26, 2012

Wednesday Evening, April 25-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up the $0.70 at
$112.27 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw
short covering after prices Tuesday hit a fresh contract
low today and were hammered by news of a new case of Mad
Cow disease in California. It appears that news will not
have a major impact on the cattle market, but it did
nothing to help the overall bearish situation in the cattle
market. Cattle bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still not yet
any early technical clues that a market low is close at
hand. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$114.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $110.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $112.95 and then at $113.50. First support
is seen at Tuesday’s contract low of $111.57 and then at
$111.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May feeder cattle closed up $0.75 at $148.60 today. Prices
closed near mid-range and saw short covering in a bear
market. Bears still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above technical
resistance at $150.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $146.45. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $149.30 and then at
$150.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $147.85
and then at $147.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

June lean hogs closed up $1.02 at $87.57 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Hog bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues that a market low is close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$89.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $85.80. First resistance is seen at
$88.00 and then at $88.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $87.00 and then at this week’s low of $86.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 4 1/2 cents at
$6.03 1/2 today. Prices again closed nearer the session low
today. Another huge USDA export sale of corn today did not
help the bulls. It’s a clearly bearish signal when a market
cannot rally on solidly bullish fresh fundamental news. The
corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
It’s very likely going to take a significant weather market
in the U.S. this summer to jump-start any serious rally in
the corn market. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.25. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $5.91 3/4.
First resistance for July corn is seen at $6.10 and then at
today’s high of $6.17. First support is seen at $6.00 and
then at $5.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July soybeans closed up 11 1/4 cents at $14.76 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored another fresh contract and nearly four-year high
today. Shrinking soybean crop estimates coming out of South
America and recent solid export demand for U.S. soybeans
has the bulls in full command. However, given the bearish
nature of corn and wheat, and the overall bearish posture
of the raw commodity sector, I have to lean toward the
notion that soybeans don’t have much more upside, unless a
weather market develops in the U.S. Still, bean bulls
presently have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bean prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the April low of $14.09 1/2. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $14.96 3/4
and then at $15.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$14.65 and then at $14.53 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.5.

July soybean meal closed up $2.10 at $417.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and did hit a fresh
contract and nearly four-year high early on. Meal bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $430.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes
in at $420.00 and then at today’s contract high of $426.60.
First support is seen at today’s low of $414.20 and then at
$410.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

July bean oil closed up 31 points at 56.00 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bean oil bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 57.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 56.36 cents and
then at 56.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 55.70 cents and then at 55.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents at $6.26 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. However, my bias is that a market low is in
place or close at hand. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.50 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.35 and
then at $6.40. First support lies at today’s low of $6.24
and then at $6.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed down 1/2 cent at $6.42 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.75. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.52 and
then at this week’s high of $6.57. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $6.36 3/4 and then at last week’s low of
$6.33 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July oats closed down 3/4 cent at $3.41 3/4 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The market on Tuesday
surged on the potential for frost to damage the oats crop
in the coming days—and held most of those gains today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s and
last week’s low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at $3.38
and then at $3.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high
and the March high of $3.45 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 31 points at 21.92 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Sugar bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 22.92
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
21.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
22.07 cents and then at 22.25 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 21.67 cents and then at this week’s low
of 21.41 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July coffee closed down 740 points at 176.10 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and scored a big and
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Coffee
prices are in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market low
is close at hand. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of 185.70 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 177.50 cents and then at
180.00 cents. First support is seen at 175.00 cents and
then at the April low of 173.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed down $43 at $2,241 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Cocoa trading has turned very
choppy. Cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $2,350. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$2,168. First resistance is seen at $2,250 and then at
$2,275. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,231 and
then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July cotton closed down 66 points at 90.80 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 94.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the April low of 86.55 cents. First resistance
is seen at 92.00 cents and then at today’s high of 92.45
cents. First support is seen at 90.00 cents and then at
89.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July orange juice closed up 485 points at $1.4670 today.
Prices closed near the session high and saw short covering
in a bear market. FCOJ bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.5500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the April contract low of $1.3930. First resistance is
seen at $1.4800 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen
at $1.4500 and then at today’s low of $1.4175. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

May lumber futures closed up $0.50 at $277.90 today. Prices
hit another fresh six-week high today as bulls have gained
upside near-term technical momentum. Prices are in a choppy
four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls
have gained the near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $265.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $285.40. First
resistance is seen at $280.00 and then at $282.50. First
support is seen at $275.00 and then at $273.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed up $0.40 an ounce at
$1,644.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw choppy trading in the aftermath of the FOMC
statement around midday. The key “outside markets” were in
a mildly bullish posture for gold late today as the U.S.
dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer.
Gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the April high of $1,685.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below technical support
at the April low of $1,613.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $1,650.10 and then at last week’s high
of $1,659.60. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
$1,634.60 and then at this week’s low of $1,623.60.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May silver futures closed down $0.226 an ounce at $30.52
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
three-month low today. Prices this week have seen a bearish
downside “breakout” from a sideways and choppy trading
range. Prices are also in a seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The silver bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $32.58 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $29.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $30.965 and then at Tuesday’s high of
$31.11. Next support is seen at today’s low of $29.925 and
then at $29.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 300 points 370.25 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
short covering. The key “outside markets” were in a mildly
bullish posture for copper late today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Copper
bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 380.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
371.50 cents and then at 373.10 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 366.05 cents and then at Tuesday’s
low of 362.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed up $0.57 a barrel at
$104.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $106.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below major
psychological support at $100.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $104.57 and then at $105.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $103.11 and then at
102.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

June heating oil closed up 292 points at $3.1633 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have
regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the April high
of $3.2666. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is producing a close below major psychological support at
$3.0500. First resistance lies at $3.2000 and then at
$3.2250. First support is seen at $3.1500 and then at
today’s low of $3.1228. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 96 points at
$3.1145 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, prices have been trending lower for four
weeks. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.2913. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $3.0500. First
resistance is seen at $3.1500 and then at $3.1750. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $3.0744 and then at
$3.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June natural gas closed up 12.5 cents at $2.188 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh two-
week high today. Short covering in a bear market was
featured. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. There are still no early clues to
suggest a market low is close at hand. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.35. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last Friday’s
contract low of $1.982. First resistance is seen at $2.20
and then at $2.25. First support is seen at $2.12 and then
at today’s low of $2.061. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 37 points at 1.3230 today. Prices closed near the
session high today and hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls
today gained the slight near-term technical advantage. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3300.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at the April low
of 1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3250 and
then at 1.3300. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3175 and then at 1.3148. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 12 points at 1.2300
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Prices
are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart, but now just barely. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the April high of 1.2462. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2200. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.2374 and then at 1.2400. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2245 and then at last week’s low of 1.2233.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Swiss franc closed up 30 points at 1.1014 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. The bulls regained the slight near-term
technical advantage today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the April high of 1.1119. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the April low of 1.0817.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1022 and then
at 1.1060. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0969
and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 73 points at 1.0300
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
1.0150. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.0322 and then at the April high of 1.0380. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.0248 and then at this week’s
low of 1.0182. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 57 points at 1.0159
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit a fresh eight-month high. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
upside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0250. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
1.0000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0168
and then at 1.0200. First support is seen at 1.0125 and
then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed up 37 points at 1.6168 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a fresh eight-
month high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart today. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6250. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.6200 and then at 1.6250. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.6077 and then at 1.6000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 18 points at 79.14
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh three-week low. Bears have gained the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 80.38. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
78.79. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 79.41 and
then at this week’s high of 79.77. First support is seen at
today’s low of 79.07 and then at 78.79. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 12/32 at 141 29/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in a wide trading range.
Profit taking was featured and also some selling pressure
tied to notions the Federal Reserve may be getting just a
bit more hawkish after today’s FOMC news. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still
in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 141 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 144
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 142 13/32
and then at 143 even. First support is seen at 141 16/32
and then at today’s low of 141 3/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 3.0 (32nds) at 131.22.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
January and February high of 132.05.5. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close
below solid technical support at 130.16.0. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 131.25.0 and then at 132.00.0.
First support is seen at 131.16.0 and then at today’s low
of 131.06.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. Traders digested the statement released at
the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting
at midday today. Importantly, the market place has at least
initially perceived the FOMC statement as suggesting there
will not be a fresh round of quantitative monetary policy
easing measures coming from the Fed any time soon. The FOMC
statement gave an arguably upbeat assessment of the overall
U.S. economic condition. The later release of the latest
Fed economic forecasts corroborated that notion, as it
hinted a little more hawkish tone from the Fed on interest
rates. The stock indexes, overall, saw no major reaction to
the FOMC news and were more interested in trading on the
latest blowout bullish earnings from Apple.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 73.00 at 2,705.50.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 2,575.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,706.75 and then at
2,735.00. First support is seen at 2,675.00 and then at
2,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 17.20 at 1,387.30.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the March low of 1,338.80. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,387.70 and then at
last week’s high of 1,390.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,371.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of
1,361.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 81 points at 13,040 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 13,220. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 12,650.
First resistance in the Dow lies at last week’s high of
13,070 and then at 13,100. First support is seen at today’s
low of 12,990 and then at 12,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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