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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 30

May 01, 2012

Monday Evening, April 30-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $1.45 at $114.30
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering after prices last week hit a fresh contract
low. Cattle bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no early
technical clues that a market low is close at hand. Sharp
gains again Tuesday would begin to hint a market low is in
place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $116.00. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of $111.55. First
resistance is seen at $114.50 and then at $115.00. First
support is seen at $114.00 and then at $113.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

May feeder cattle closed up $1.37 at $150.15 today. Prices
closed near the session high today on short covering in a
bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at $152.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$147.70. First resistance is seen at $150.50 and then at
$151.00. First support is seen at $149.50 and then at
$149.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

June lean hogs closed down $0.40 at $86.20 today. Prices
closed near mid-range and hit a fresh contract low today.
Hog bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues
that a market low is close at hand. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $89.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $85.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $86.50 and then at
$87.00. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$85.70 and then at $85.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 8 1/2 cents at $6.34
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-week high, and showed good follow-through
buying from strong gains and a bullish weekly high close on
Friday. Last week’s mammoth USDA export sales of nearly 3
million metric tons has prompted bargain hunters to step
in. It’s likely a near-term low is in place for the corn
market but the bulls have more work to do in the near term
to suggest an uptrend can be sustained. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.15.
First resistance for July corn is seen at today’s high of
$6.34 3/4 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at $6.30
and then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

July soybeans closed up 11 cents at $15.04 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh contract and nearly four-year high today. Prices also
closed at a bullish monthly high close today. Solid export
demand for U.S. soybeans, including more sales to China
today, have boosted the bulls. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage amid no early clues of a
market top being close at hand. Bean prices are in a four-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $15.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $14.60. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $15.07 and
then at $15.15. First support is seen at today’s low of
$14.82 and then at $14.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

July soybean meal closed up $7.20 at $435.60 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and hit a fresh contract
and nearly four-year high. Prices also closed at a bullish
monthly high close today. Meal bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $450.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$415.00. First resistance comes in at today’s contract high
of $436.50 and then at $440.00. First support is seen at
$430.00 and then at $426.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

July bean oil closed down 48 points at 55.05 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today, hit a fresh
four-week low and closed at a bearish monthly low close
today. Spreaders have been selling oil and buying meal.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 56.36
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at 55.50 cents and then at today’s high of 55.66
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 54.78 cents
and then at 54.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents at $6.54 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed
at a fresh three-week high close. More short covering in a
bear market was seen. Wheat bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage but the bulls have just
recently gained some upside technical momentum. My bias is
that a market low is in place. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.80 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.25. First resistance is seen at today’ high
of $6.55 1/2 and then at $6.60. First support lies at $6.50
and then at today’s low of $6.40 1/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 3 cents at $6.62 today.
Prices closed near the session high on short covering. The
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $6.75.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the April
low of $6.33 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $6.65 1/2 and then at $6.70. First support is seen
at $6.50 and then at $6.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July oats closed up 3 3/4 cents at $3.45 1/2 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Prices also closed at a
monthly high close and a 5.5-month high close. Bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at this week’s and the April
low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.50. First support lies at $3.40 and then
at today’s low of $3.35. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $3.47 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 17 points at 21.04 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh nearly 12-month low close. Prices also
closed at a technically bearish monthly low close today.
Sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside power today. Prices are
in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 22.07 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 20.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 21.25
cents and then at today’s high of 21.45 cents. First
support is seen at last week’s low of 20.89 cents and then
at 20.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

July coffee closed up 300 points at 179.59 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Coffee prices are in an eight-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
clues to suggest a market low is close at hand. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
185.70 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 170.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at 180.00 cents and then at 182.50 cents. First support is
seen at 177.50 cents and then at today’s low of 175.65
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

July cocoa closed down $100 at $2,209 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today in a mammoth trading range.
Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the
daily bar chart today after hitting a fresh four-week high
early on. Prices also hit a fresh two-week low  by the
close. Cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh downside momentum today. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at today’s high of $2,333. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $2,056. First
resistance is seen at $2,225 and then at $2,250. First
support is seen at $2,200 and then at $2,183. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

July cotton closed down 183 points at 89.40 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week
low as the bears gained fresh downside momentum today.
Cotton bears have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 93.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the April low of 86.55 cents. First
resistance is seen at 90.00 cents and then at 91.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 87.87 cents and
then at 86.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July orange juice closed down 615 points at $1.4185 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
contract low today. FCOJ bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum
today. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.5220. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.3500. First resistance is
seen at $1.4500 and then at $1.4700. First support is seen
at $1.4000 and then at today’s contract low of $1.3800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $281.90 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low on some profit taking.
Prices Friday hit a fresh six-week high. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$270.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $294.00. First
resistance is seen at $284.00 and then at $285.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $280.70 and then at
$277.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $0.30 an ounce at
$1,664.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The key “outside markets” were in a mildly bearish
posture for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer
and crude oil prices were weaker. Gold bulls and bears are
back on a level near-term technical playing field. However,
the bulls have more work to do in the near-term to suggest
an uptrend on the chart can be sustained. The gold bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the April high of
$1,685.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below technical support at the April low
of $1,613.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of $1,668.40 and then at $1,675.00. First support is seen
at $1,650.00 and then at today’s low of $1,645.10.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

July silver futures closed down $0.456 an ounce at $30.955
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were in a mildly bearish posture for silver today
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were weaker. Silver prices are still in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver bears still
have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $32.00 an ounce. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $29.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $31.445 and then at last week’s
high of $31.74. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$30.60 and then at last week’s low of $29.925. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 5 points 382.45 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
four-week high early on. The key “outside markets” were in
a bearish posture for copper today as the U.S. dollar index
was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Copper bulls
still have some upside technical momentum and have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 395.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 370.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 386.15 cents and then
at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
379.65 cents and then at 377.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $0.14 a barrel at
$104.81 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field, but the bulls are gaining a bit of upside momentum.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at $106.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below major psychological support at
$100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$105.16 and then at $105.50. First support is seen at
$104.00 and then at 103.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

June heating oil closed steady at $3.1835 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of $3.2666. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1250. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.1922 and then at last week’s
high of $3.2101. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.1658 and then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 260 points at
$3.1185 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, a six-week-old downtrend line is still in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.2000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $3.0500. First resistance is seen at $3.1500 and
then at $3.1750. First support is seen at $3.1000 and then
at last week’s low of $3.0744. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

June natural gas closed up 10.2 cents at $2.288 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-week high close today. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls
have gained just a bit of momentum to suggest a market low
is close at hand or in place. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $2.40. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of
$1.982. First resistance is seen at $2.30 and then at
$2.35. First support is seen at $2.25 and then at $2.20.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 21 points at 1.3241 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field as a bearish descending triangle
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of 1.3391. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
the April low of 1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies
at last week’s high of 1.3273 and then at 1.3300. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.3211 and then at
1.3160. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 87 points at 1.2532 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh
nine-week high and closed at a bullish monthly high close
today. Bulls have gained the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2700. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2233. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2547 and then at 1.2600. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1.2445 and then at 1.2400.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 20 points at 1.1025 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the April high of 1.1119. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
1.0817. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.1054 and then at 1.1119. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0999 and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The June Australian dollar closed down 50 points at 1.0366
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0500. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
1.0150. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0422 and then at 1.0461. Next support is seen at 1.0300
and then at 1.0248. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 66 points at 1.0118
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
profit taking from recent gains. The bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at 1.0250. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 1.0192 and then at 1.0200. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0095 and then at
1.0059. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed down 37 points at 1.6227
today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit
taking after hitting another fresh eight-month high early
on today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6400. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.6298 and then at 1.6350. First support is seen at
1.6200 and then at 1.6149. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 10 points at 78.86
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
two-month low early on. Bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 80.38. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the February low of
78.42. Next resistance lies at 79.00 and then at 79.33.
First support is seen at today’s low of 78.68 and then at
78.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed steady at 142 23/32 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 141 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 144 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 143 2/32 and then at
last week’s high of 143 18/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 142 13/32 and then at 142 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 2.0 (32nds) at 132.07.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh contract high and fresh monthly high close. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 134.00.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 131.06.0. First resistance is seen at the
contract high of 132.17.0 and then at 132.24.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 132.00.0 and then at
131.19.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today as it was a bit of a “risk off” trading day in
the market place on fresh worries about the European Union
sovereign debt and financial crisis. Traders are now
awaiting Friday morning’s key U.S. jobs report.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 19.00 at
2,717.75. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the March low of 2,575.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 2,746.00 and then
at 2,775.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at
2,675.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 5.00 at 1,393.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 1,419.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the April low of 1,352.50.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1,402.80
and then at 1,419.60. First support is seen at 1,381.10 and
then at 1,371.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 4 points at 13,160 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 13,220. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 12,790.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 13,200 and then at
13,220. First support is seen at today’s low of 13,120 and
then at 13,070. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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