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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 1

Aug 02, 2012

Wednesday Evening, August 1-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $0.32 at
$124.07 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as bulls
are fading again. Prices Monday hit a 10-week high. Recent
gains are still a clue the cattle market has put in a near-
term low. Cattle futures bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field, but the bulls need to
step up and show fresh power soon. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $126.45.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $122.15. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $124.50 and then at $125.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $123.72 and then at
$123.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $142.37 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering and some bargain hunting. Feeders appear to be
“basing” at lower price levels, which could mean a market
low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $144.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $138.30. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $142.80 and then at this week’s high of
$143.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $141.70
and then at $141.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

October lean hogs closed down $0.57 at $79.72 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Bears have regained fresh
downside near-term technical momentum. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s
high of $82.75. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical
support at the June low of $77.55. First resistance is seen
at $80.00 and then at today’s high of $80.35. First support
is seen at today’s low of $79.35 and then at $79.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were down
10 cents at $7.95 1/4 today. Prices were near mid-range
today and saw profit-taking pressure. There some better
chances for rain in the parched Corn Belt and that was a
bit negative for corn today. The corn bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage as a steep
uptrend is in place from the June low. Remember, however,
that a major bull market needs fresh fundamental inputs,
often, to digest. Corn bulls' next upside price objective
is to push and close prices above psychological resistance
at $8.50. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $7.45 1/2. First resistance for
December corn is seen at $8.00 and then at $8.10. First
support is seen at $7.90 and then at today’s low of $7.81
1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were down 15
1/2 cents at $16.25 3/4 a bushel today. Prices were near
mid-range. Some more profit taking was seen today amid a
bit wetter forecasts for the Corn Belt in the coming days—
but by no means a drought-breaker. Soybeans are taking over
the lead from the corn market the bull market run in the
grains. Soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above psychological resistance at $17.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $15.75. First resistance is seen at $16.50 and
then at this week’s high of $16.63 1/4. First support is
seen at $16.00 and then at today’s low of $15.95 3/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

In late trading, December soybean meal was up $0.30 at
$494.80 today. Prices were nearer the session high. Meal
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $509.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$454.30. First resistance comes in at $500.00 and then at
this week’s high of $503.60. First support is seen at
$490.00 and then at $485.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

In late trading, December bean oil was down 80 points at
52.62 cents today. Prices were nearer the session low. Bean
oil bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 55.00 cents. Bean oil bears'
next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 52.08 cents. First resistance is seen at
53.00 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 52.49 cents and then at 52.08 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was down 7
cents at $8.95 1/2 today. Prices were near mid-range today
and saw more profit taking from recent gains. The wheat
market is still closely following corn and soybeans. Wheat
bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
However, this is also a very mature bull market run. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of $9.77 1/2 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$8.64 1/4. First resistance is seen at $9.00 and then at
today’s high of $9.11 1/4. First support lies at today’s
low of $8.76 and then at $8.64 1/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was down 14 1/2
cents at $8.99 today. Prices were nearer the session low
and saw more profit taking. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bull
market run is very mature. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of $9.92
3/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $8.74.
First resistance is seen at $9.10 and then at today’s high
of $9.21. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.90 and
then at $8.74. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

In late trading, December oats were down 11 1/2 cents at
$3.71 1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session low. Oats
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.57
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$4.00. First support lies at today’s low of $3.68 3/4 and
then at $3.65. First resistance is seen at $3.75 and then
at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 16 points at 22.48
cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh
four-week low today. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart was negated today as the bulls are fading. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but need to show fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 24.00 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 21.65
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 22.81
cents and then at this week’s high of 23.00 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 22.07 cents and then at
22.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September coffee closed up 80 points at 175.20 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session high and did hit another
fresh four-week low today. Tepid short covering was
featured today. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
185.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 170.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at 177.50 cents and then at this week’s high of 178.90
cents. First support is seen at 172.70 cents and then at
today’s low of 170.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

September cocoa closed up $12 at $2,388 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh four-
month high. Cocoa bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the March high of
$2,455. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,250. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,409 and then at $2,455. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,370 and then at $2,350. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

December cotton closed down 78 points at 70.56 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today as choppy and
sideways trading action continues. The cotton bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
this market still may be “basing” at lower price levels,
which means a market low could be in place. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 67.16 cents. First resistance is seen
at 71.00 cents and then at today’s high of 72.00 cents.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.50 cents and
then at 70.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September orange juice closed down 240 points at $1.0750
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
nine-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at this week’s high of $1.1675.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the May low of $1.0000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.1000 and then at $1.1265. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1.0515 and then at $1.0235.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

September lumber futures closed up $1.20 at $282.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls have faded
recently and are on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bears. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $277.50. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $296.70. First resistance is seen at $285.00
and then at today’s high of $286.50. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $280.00 and then at $277.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $7.30 an ounce
at $1,607.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on
some profit taking and chart consolidation. The gold market
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
June high of $1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $1,559.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,621.80 and then at last week’s
high of $1,633.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,598.00 and then at $1,590.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.0

September silver futures closed down $0.499 an ounce at
$27.415 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as the
bulls are fading again. Silver bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$26.575. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.02
and then at this week’s high of $28.335. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $27.06 and then at last week’s low
of $26.575. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 440 points 337.35 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Copper bears have gained the slight near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 333.20 cents. First
resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 342.65 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
336.05 cents and then at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $0.83 a barrel
at $88.91 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today as trading has been choppy. Crude oil bulls still
have the slight near-term technical advantage, but need to
show more power soon. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$93.25 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $86.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $89.47 and then at $90.00. First
support is seen at $88.00 and then at last week’s low of
$86.84. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September heating oil closed up 80 points at $2.8560 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more
power soon. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart, but just barely. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.7500. First resistance lies at
$2.8750 and then at this week’s high of $2.8974. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $2.8262 and then at
last week’s low of $2.7917. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 536 points at
$2.8279 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh 2.5-month high. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.9000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at last week’s low of $2.6551. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.8533 and then at
$2.8750. First support is seen at $2.8000 and then at this
week’s low of $2.7604. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September natural gas closed down 5.1 cents at $3.158
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on mild
profit taking. Prices Tuesday hit a 6.5-month high. Bulls
have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$3.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$2.90. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$3.277 and then at $3.30. First support is seen at today’s
low of $3.123 and then at $3.065. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 78 points at 1.2235 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The Euro bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at last week’s low
of 1.2051. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2300 and
then at today’s high of 1.2344. Next support is seen at
1.2200 and then at 1.2171. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed down 62 points at 1.2745
today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored
a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Profit
taking was featured. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the June high of 1.2895. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2600. First resistance is seen at 1.2800 and then at
last week’s high of 1.2854. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.2737 and then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 69 points at 1.0188
today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored
a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage
in the Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.0400. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0281 and then at last week’s high of
1.0324. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0182 and
then at 1.0142. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The September Australian dollar closed down 53 points at
1.0415 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh five-month high early on. Prices also
scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart today. Profit taking was featured today and bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of
1.0557. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 1.0125. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0497 and then at 1.0557. Next support is seen at
this week’s low of 1.0402 and then at 1.0336. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The September Canadian dollar closed down 17 points at
.9945 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on
profit taking. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of .9761. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of .9987 and then at 1.0000. First support is seen at
today’s low of .9934 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed down 138 points at
1.5543 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field and confined to a well-defined trading range.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June
high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at last
week’s low of 1.5456. First resistance is seen at 1.5600
and then at today’s high of 1.5690. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1.5529 and then at 1.5456. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 52 points at
83.23 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Greenback bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 84.24. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance
lies at 83.50 and then at 83.75. First support is seen at
83.00 and then at today’s low of 82.54. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 12/32 at 150 21/32
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw mild
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 148 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s contract
high of 153 11/32. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 151 20/32 and then at 152 even. First support is
seen at today’s low of 150 7/32 and then at 150 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 10.0 (32nds) at 134.11.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s contract high of 135.15.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at 134.20.0 and then at
this week’s high of 134.28.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 134.04.0 and then at 134.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker again today in more tentative trading. The Wednesday
afternoon conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting of the
U.S. Federal Reserve was not widely believed to see the Fed
announce a major new stimulus initiative (QE3). Still, many
markets, including the precious metals, did weaken
following the news. However, many believe such an
announcement will occur in the coming weeks. Now, focus is
on the European Central Bank’s policy meeting and press
conference on Thursday. The Bank of England also meets to
discuss its monetary policy, with results on Thursday. The
ECB is expected by many to announce a fresh monetary
stimulus package. Any monetary easing moves by the major
central banks of the world would be at least initially
bullish for many markets, including the precious metals.
In overnight news, Germany’s economy minister reportedly
said allowing the European Union’s new bailout fund to have
broad banking powers is not a good way to go. The German
Bundesbank president also made hawkish comments on the EU
bailout process. Those remarks seem to run counter to
recent statements from the European Central Bank president
Mario Draghi, who last week said the ECB would do whatever
it takes to keep the Euro currency in its present form.
There was also more weak economic data coming out of the EU
Wednesday. The Spanish 10-year bond yield was quoted just
above 6.5%, while Italian bond yields were quoted just
below 6% on Wednesday. After the batch of central bank
meetings are out of the way, focus of the market place will
quickly turn to the U.S. employment report on Friday
morning.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 11.50 at
2,625.00. Prices closed nearer the session low again today
and scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the July low of
2,516.50. First resistance is seen at the July high of
2,658.00 and then at 2,675.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,618.50 and then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 4.20 at 1,370.40.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of 1,387.30 and then at
1,400.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,369.00
and then at 1,353.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 26 points at 12,923 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of 13,280.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 12,400. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,000 and then at 13,024.
First support is seen at today’s low of 12,900 and then at
12,850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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