Sep 16, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 14

Aug 15, 2012

Tuesday Evening, August 14-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.47 at
$126.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today,
hit a fresh 11-week high and scored a bullish “outside day”
up on the daily bar chart. The bulls have gained upside
momentum and prices are also in a four-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. Cattle futures bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of $127.05. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $124.07. First resistance is seen at
$127.05 and then at $127.50. First support is seen at
$126.45 and then at today’s low of $125.95. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

October feeder cattle closed up $2.32 at $145.80 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
four-week high. Feeders have seen a bullish upside
“breakout” from a sideways trading range at lower price
levels to suggest a market low is in place and that prices
can now trend sideways to higher. Feeder cattle bulls now
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$147.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $143.00. First resistance is seen at $146.00 and
then at $146.50. First support is seen at $145.00 and then
at $144.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.40 at $77.45 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. It’s my bias this market does
not have much more downside potential and has likely put in
a market low. But the bears do still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $79.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s contract low
of $74.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$77.60 and then at $78.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of $76.65 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were down
2 3/4 cents at $7.89 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the
session low. Price action Friday and Monday confirmed a
bearish “key reversal” in the corn market, which is an
early technical clue that a major market top is in place.
Also, any time a market cannot rally on fresh, bullish
fundamental news (last Friday’s USDA report) that’s a sign
the bulls are exhausted and a market top is in place, or
close at hand. The corn bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s contract high of $8.49. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.45
1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s
high of $8.00 and then at Monday’s high of $8.13 3/4. First
support is seen at Monday’s low of $7.86 and then at $7.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were down 2
3/4 cents at $15.98 a bushel today. Prices were near mid-
range. While the bulls have not shown power following last
Friday’s bullish USDA report, a bullish symmetrical
triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Soybean
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $16.68 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $15.55 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $16.13 and then at $16.25. First
support is seen at today’s low of $15.87 and then at
$15.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

In late trading, December soybean meal was down $0.70 at
$477.70 today. Prices were near mid-range. Meal bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $500.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $467.30. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $484.80 and then at $490.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $472.00 and then at $470.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

In late trading, December bean oil was down 22 points at
53.53 cents today. Prices were nearer the session low as
the bulls are fading a bit. Bean oil bulls and bears are
still on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears'
next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 51.84 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 53.98 cents and then at last week’s high of
54.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.39
cents and then at 53.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was down 13 1/2
cents at $8.62 1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session
low late today and hit a fresh four-week low. The wheat
market bulls are fading following recent price action. It
could be that a bearish double-top reversal is forming on
the daily bar chart. My bias is that the what market has
put in a major top. Wheat bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above major psychological resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $8.15. First resistance is seen at
$8.75 and then at today’s high of $8.84 1/2. First support
lies at today’s low of $8.58 1/4 and then at $8.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was down 16 1/2
cents at $8.76 1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session
low today and poised to close at a fresh four-week low
close. Bulls have faded as a bearish double-top reversal
pattern may be forming. My bias is that a market top is in
place, but the bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of $9.57 1/4. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $8.50.
First resistance is seen at $9.00 and then at Monday’s high
of $9.17. First support is seen at $8.74 and then at $8.60.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

In late trading, December oats were down 2 1/2 cents at
$3.68 today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded
recently and a market top may now be in place. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $3.98 1/2. First support lies at today’s low of $3.65
1/2 and then at the August low of $3.62. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $3.72 and then at $3.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 13 points at 20.26
cents today. Prices closed near the session low again today
and hit a fresh six-week low. The sugar bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage and have downside momentum on
their side. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at 21.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the June low of 19.24 cents. First resistance is
seen at 20.50 cents and then at today’s high of 20.77
cents. First support is seen at 20.00 cents and then at
19.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

September coffee closed down 105 points at 163.05 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
six-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 175.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of 150.10
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
165.75 cents and then at Monday’s high of 167.25 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 162.40 cents and
then at 160.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September cocoa closed up $36 at $2,424 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Cocoa bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
choppy, 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the January high of $2,533. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,300. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,468 and then at
Monday’s 6.5-month high of $2,488. First support is seen at
$2,400 and then at today’s low of $2,386. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed up 62 points at 72.31 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have faded just
recently and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
79.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of 73.33 cents and then at 74.00 cents.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 71.59 cents and
then at 71.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

September orange juice closed up 260 points at $1.1625
today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed
at a fresh four-week high close on short covering in a bear
market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.2000. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the August low of $1.0515. First
resistance is seen at $1.1675 and then at $1.1800. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.1400 and then at
Monday’s low of $1.1190. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September lumber futures closed down $3.30 at $307.80
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short
covering after prices hit a fresh 11.5-month high on
Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $296.70. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$320.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$309.10 and then at Monday’s high of $312.70. First support
is seen at today’s low of $305.00 and then at $303.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $11.60 an
ounce at $1,601.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today as the bulls are fading a bit. There is still not
much new in this market as the choppy and range-bound
trading action continues as it has for the past two months.
The gold market bulls and bears are still on an overall
level near-term technical playing field. The gold bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the June high of
$1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of $1,559.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $1,618.90 and then at last week’s high of $1,633.30.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,593.60 and then
at $1,586.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed down $0.052 an ounce at
$27.715 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Not much new in silver, either, as prices are still choppy
and range-bound. Silver bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $27.97
and then at last week’s high of $28.315. Next support is
seen at last week’s low of $27.53 and then at $27.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 45 points at 335.80 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. Copper bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 325.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 338.00
cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 
today’s low of 333.65 cents and then at 330.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $0.66 a barrel
at $93.39 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in
quieter trading. Crude oil bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old price
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $96.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the August low of
$86.92. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $93.92
and then at last week’s high of $94.72 and then at $95.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $92.56 and then at
$92.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September heating oil closed up 145 points at $3.0328
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.8250. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.0450 and then at last week’s
high of $3.0606. First support is seen at $3.0250 and then
at $3.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 125 points at
$3.0022 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.1000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $2.8500. First
resistance is seen at this weeks’four-month high of $3.0435
and then at $3.0750. First support is seen at today’s low
of $2.9707 and then at $2.9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

September natural gas closed up 10.6 cents at $2.835 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $3.277. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $2.706. First resistance is seen
at $2.95 and then at $3.00. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $2.715 and then at $2.70. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 8 points at 1.2330 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The Euro bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051.
First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of
1.2390 and then at last week’s high of 1.2450 and then at
1.2500. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.2265 and
then at 1.2200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed down 65 points at 1.2700
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh four-week low. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage but did faded today and need to show
fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
July high of 1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2600. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.2772 and then at last week’s high of 1.2803. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.2671 and then at
1.2600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 4 points at 1.0270
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0400.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0319 and then at last week’s high of 1.0366 and then at
1.0400. First support is seen at 1.0200 and then at the
August low of 1.0112. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The September Australian dollar closed down 16 points at
1.0464 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw mild profit taking. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at 1.0700. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0508 and then at the contract high of
1.0578. Next support is seen at 1.0400 and then at 1.0350.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 10 points at 1.0079
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh three-month high close. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the April high of 1.0168. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9850. First resistance is
seen at Monday’s high of 1.0088 and then at 1.0100. First
support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0052 and then at
1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed down 2 points at 1.5684
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field
and confined to a well-defined trading range. However,
prices are also in a gentle three-week-old uptrend on the
daily chart. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5456. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.5736 and then at 1.5773. First support is seen at
Monday’s low of 1.5655 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 5 points at 82.54
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
84.24. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at Monday’s
high of 82.76 and then at 83.00. First support is seen at
last week’s low of 82.06 and then at 81.56. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 9/32 at 147 17/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a
fresh 3.5-month low close today. Bulls have faded badly as
prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 144 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 150 even. First resistance is seen at 148
even and then at 148 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 147 10/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 15.0 (32nds) at 133.05.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh seven-week low. Bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage but are fading badly
and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the August high of 134.29.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.16.0. First resistance is seen at 133.10.0 and then at
today’s high of 133.20.5. First support is seen at today’s
low of 133.02.5 and then at 133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker and near their daily lows today in more quiet,
summertime trading. The indexes did hit three-month highs
early on today. Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum as the stock market is “climbing a wall of worry.”
Remember the old market adage: “Never short a quiet
market.”

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 1.25 at
2,726.75. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh three-month high early on. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the April high of 2,791.50. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the July low of 2,516.50. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,743.00 and then at
2,760.00. First support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,705.75
and then at last week’s low of 2,671.75. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 0.80 at 1,401.80.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
three-month high early on. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the May high of 1,411.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance
is seen at 1,411.50 and then at 1,425.00. First support is
seen at Monday’s low of 1,394.00 and then at last week’s
low of 1,387.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 3 points at 13,140 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and poked to a fresh three-
month high. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
May high of 13,280. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 12,400. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high
of 13,185 and then at 13,200. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 13,080 and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions