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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 16

Aug 17, 2012

Thursday Evening, August 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $1.10 at
$125.55 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today and saw more profit taking from recent gains. The
bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage
but need to show fresh power soon. Prices are in a four-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $128.00. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $124.07. First resistance is seen at
$126.00 and then at $126.45. First support is seen at
$125.00 and then at $124.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

October feeder cattle closed down $1.40 at $144.12 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on a corrective
pullback from recent gains. Feeder cattle bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field but the
bulls need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $147.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$143.00. First resistance is seen at $145.00 and then at
today’s high of $145.45. First support is seen at $143.50
and then at $142.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.02 at $75.62 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bears have downside
near-term technical momentum as a bear flag has formed on
the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $77.70.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
contract low of $74.90. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $76.12 and then at $76.75. First support is seen at
today’s low of $75.50 and then at $74.90. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 4 cents at $8.08
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for the corn market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were higher. Recent price action produced a bearish
“key reversal” down in the corn market, which is an early
technical clue that a major market top is in place.
However, the corn bulls maintain the overall near-term
technical advantage and it will take strong downside
selling pressure to change the overall technical posture of
corn from bullish to bearish. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s contract high of $8.49. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.45
1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at this
week’s high of $8.13 3/4 and then at $8.20 1/2. First
support is seen at $8.00 and then at this week’s low of
$7.86. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

November soybeans were down 7 1/2 cents at $16.27 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
and saw some profit taking. A bullish symmetrical triangle
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Soybean bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $16.68 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $15.55 1/4. First resistance
is seen at Wednesday’s high of $16.36 and then at today’s
high of $16.43 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of
$16.19 1/2 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

December soybean meal was down $4.20 at $489.60 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low. Meal bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$500.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $467.30. First resistance
comes in at Wednesday’s high of $494.40 and then at today’s
high of $498.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$488.30 and then at $485.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

December bean oil was up 4 points at 53.75 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Bean oil bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 51.84 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 54.03 cents and then at this week’s high of 54.50
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.46 cents
and then at  this week’s low of 53.28 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 16 1/4 cents at $8.82 3/4
in late trading today. Prices closed nearer the session
high today and saw more short covering and bargain hunting.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for the wheat market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were higher. It still could be that a bearish
double-top reversal is forming on the daily bar chart. My
bias is that the wheat market has put in a major top, or is
close to it. Wheat bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
major psychological resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $8.15. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $8.88 3/4 and then at $9.00. First support lies at $8.70
and then at this week’s low of $8.58 1/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 15 cents at $8.98 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. A
bearish double-top reversal pattern still may be forming.
My bias is that a market top is in place, or close to it,
but the bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $9.57 1/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.50. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $9.02 and then at this week’s high of
$9.17. First support is seen at $8.84 and then at this
week’s low of $8.74 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December oats were up 7 1/2 cents at $3.83 3/4 today in
late trading. Prices were near the session high. Oats bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.57
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $3.98 1/2. First support lies at $3.80 and
then at today’s low of $3.74 1/4. First resistance is seen
at $3.85 and then at $3.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 12 points at 20.17
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit another fresh six-week low. Today’s was the
13th session in a row with a lower daily close. The sugar
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage and have
downside momentum on their side. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 21.50 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 19.24 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 20.45 cents and
then at Wednesday’s high of 20.64 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 20.14 cents and then at 20.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

September coffee closed down 330 points at 158.60 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh six-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 170.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of 150.10
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 160.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 161.80 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 157.80 cents and then at 155.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

September cocoa closed up $7 at $2,436 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. Cocoa bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $2,533. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $2,450 and then at this week’s high of
$2,488. First support is seen at $2,416 and then at $2,400.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed down 23 points at 72.88 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
However, a minor bear flag has formed on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 77.07 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of 73.69 cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 72.25 cents and then at this week’s
low of 71.59 cents and then at 71.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

September orange juice closed down 375 points at $1.2155
today. Prices hit a fresh five-week high again today as a
“short squeeze” played out in the market (traders caught
short) as worries increased about a tropical storm or
hurricane hitting citrus regions of the southeastern U.S.
However, prices then quickly sold off to close nearer the
session low to likely produce a spike top. Bulls and bears
are now on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the July high of $1.3155. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.1000. First resistance
is seen at $1.2300 and then at $1.2500. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1.1910 and then at $1.1750.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September lumber futures closed down $6.30 at $308.70
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit
taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $320.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$310.00 and then at $313.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $307.00 and then at $305.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $12.00 an ounce
at $1,618.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The key “outside markets” were bullish for gold
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were higher. The choppy, sideways and range-bound
trading action continues as it has for the past two months.
The gold market bulls and bears are on an overall level
near-term technical playing field. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at the June high of $1,646.40.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the July low of
$1,559.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,622.00 and then at last week’s high of $1,633.30. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,603.00 and then at
this week’s low of $1,592.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.388 an ounce at
$28.20 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
closed at a fresh six-week high close. Prices are still
choppy, sideways and range-bound, but the market is now in
the very upper boundary of its trading range, suggesting an
upside breakout is possible soon. Silver bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$28.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $26.105. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $28.315 and then
at $28.445. Next support is seen at $28.00 and then at
today’s low of $27.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 325 points at 338.20 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for copper today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
higher. Copper bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 345.70 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 325.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at
342.50 cents. First support is seen at 335.00 cents and
then at this week’s low of 333.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $0.79 a barrel
at $95.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit another fresh three-month high. Crude oil
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
six-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $98.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
$90.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $95.75
and then at $96.00. First support is seen at $94.00 and
then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

September heating oil closed up 250 points at $3.1101
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh 3.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.2000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.9500. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $3.1274 and then at $3.1500. First support
is seen at today’s low of $3.0740 and then at $3.0500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 191 points
at $3.0649 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and did hit a fresh four-month high early on. Profit
taking was featured. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.9500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.0943 and then at $3.1250. First support is seen at
$3.0435 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September natural gas closed down 3.5 cents at $2.713
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low. Bulls are fading and bears now have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is
seen at $2.80 and then at this week’s high of $2.848. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.685 and then at $2.65.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 70 points at 1.2363 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. Short covering was
featured. The Euro bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051. First
resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.2390
and then at the August high of 1.2450. Next support is seen
at 1.2300 and then at today’s low of 1.2258. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

The September Japanese yen closed down 60 points at 1.2617
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh four-week low. Bulls have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading and need to
show fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
July high of 1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.2668 and then at 1.2700. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2595 and then at 1.2550. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 59 points at 1.0296
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in
the Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.0400. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the July low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0319 and then at the August high of
1.0366. First support is seen at 1.0250 and then at today’s
low of 1.0209. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 14 points at
1.0491 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0700. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0250. First
resistance is seen at 1.0508 and then at the contract high
of 1.0578. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0446
and then at this week’s low of 1.0423. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 24 points at 1.0131
today. Prices closed near the session high again today and
hit another fresh 3.5-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
the April high of 1.0168. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9950. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0135 and then at 1.0168. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0094 and then at this week’s low
of 1.0052. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The September British pound closed up 51 points at 1.5737
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls regained the slight near-term technical advantage
today. Prices are confined to a well-defined trading range,
but are now in the upper boundary of it. Prices are also in
a gentle three-week-old uptrend on the daily chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June
high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.5456.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5744 and then
at 1.5773. First support is seen at 1.5655 and then at
today’s low of 1.5635. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 27 points at
82.43 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
July high of 84.24. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance
lies at today’s high of 82.96 and then at 83.25. First
support is seen at today’s low of 82.37 and then at this
week’s low of 82.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 19/32 at 145 17/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit another fresh three-month low. Bulls have faded badly
as prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. For the first time in months the bulls have lost
their near-term technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 144 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 149 9/32. First resistance is seen at 146 even and then
at today’s high of 146 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 145 4/32 and then at 145 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 8.0 (32nds) at 132.10.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh three-month low. Prices are in a three-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For the first time in
months the bulls have lost their near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at this
week’s high of 133.27.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 131.16.0. First resistance is seen at
132.16.0 and then at today’s high of 132.22.5. First
support is seen at today’s low of 132.05.0 and then at
132.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today and hit multi-month highs. Stock index bulls
have solid upside near-term technical momentum on their
side.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 27.25 at 2,765.75.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
4.5-month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the April high
of 2,791.50. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the July low of 2,516.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,7774.00 and then at 2,791.50. First
support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at today’s low of
2,738.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 9.60 at 1,413.10.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
3.5-month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high
of 1,419.60. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
August low of 1,350.00. First resistance is seen at
1,419.60 and then at 1,425.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,402.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,387.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed up 90 points at 13,225 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 3.5-
month high. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
May high of 13,280. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the August low of 12,730. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 13,240 and then at 13,280. First
support is seen at 13,200 and then at today’s low of
13,125. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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