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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 20

Aug 21, 2012

Monday Evening, August 20-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.20 at
$125.47 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
in quieter trading. The bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage but need to show more power soon.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $127.22. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the August low of
$123.60. First resistance is seen at $125.70 and then at
$126.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of
$125.10 and then at $124.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

October feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $144.05 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Feeder cattle
bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical
playing field but the bulls need to show more power soon.
The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $145.95. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $142.00.
First resistance is seen at $144.50 and then at $145.00.
First support is seen at $143.50 and then at today’s low of
$142.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October lean hogs closed down $0.30 at $75.90 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of
$77.70. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $74.90. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $76.45 and then at $77.00. First support is
seen at last week’s low of $75.50 and then at $74.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 15 1/4 cents at
$8.22 1/2 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session high. The corn bulls maintain the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside
momentum today. All eyes are on the Pro Farmer U.S. crop
tour. Also, there is a major typhoon bearing down on China
that could hurt the corn and soybean crops there. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the contract
high of $8.49. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $7.86. First
resistance for December corn is seen at $8.29 3/4 and then
at $8.35. First support is seen at $8.15 and then at
today’s low of $8.07 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

November soybeans were up 32 1/2 cents at $16.78 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session high and hit a fresh four-week high today. Focus is
on the Pro Farmer crop tour this week, and there is a major
typhoon bearing down on China crop regions. Price action
today produced a bullish upside “breakout” from a
symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily bar chart.
Soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh power today. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing November prices above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of $16.91 1/2 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.91 1/2
and then at $17.00. First support is seen at $16.68 and
then at $16.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December soybean meal was up $10.50 at $510.40 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high and hit a
fresh contract high. Meal bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and gained more power today.
Prices are in a solid 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $525.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $472.00.
First resistance comes in at today’s contract high of
$512.50 and then at $515.00. First support is seen at
$507.50 and then at $503.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December bean oil was up 81 points at 54.55 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and hit
a fresh four-week high today. Bean oil bulls have the near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 56.00 cents. Bean
oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of 53.28 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 54.73 cents and then at 55.00 cents.
First support is seen at 54.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 53.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 10 cents at $9.04 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
today and saw short covering and bargain hunting. It still
could be that a bearish double-top reversal is forming on
the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above major psychological resistance at the July high of
$9.53 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $8.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $9.06 and then at $9.20. First support lies at today’s
low of $8.87 1/2 and then at $8.75. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 6 1/4 cents at $9.16 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. A
bearish double-top reversal pattern still may be forming.
The bulls do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $9.57 1/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $8.74 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.19 and then
at $9.25. First support is seen at $9.00 and then at $8.85.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December oats were up 5 1/2 cents at $3.89 1/4 today in
late trading. Prices were near the session high. Oats bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $3.65. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the August high of $3.98 1/2. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.83 1/4 and then at $3.80.
First resistance is seen at $3.90 and then at $3.92 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 29 points at 20.47 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering
in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a six-week low. Sugar
bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage
and have downside momentum on their side. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 21.50 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
19.24 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
20.70 cents and then at 21.00 cents. First support is seen
at last week’s low of 20.11 cents and then at 20.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December coffee closed up 105 points at 164.25 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a six-
week low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 172.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of 153.70 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at 165.00 cents and then
at today’s high of 166.60 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 163.20 cents and then at last week’s low of
160.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December cocoa closed down $43 at $2,399 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw profit taking
from recent gains. Cocoa bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $2,501. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen
at $2,444 and then at today’s high of $2,463. First support
is seen at last week’s low of $2,378 and then at the August
low of $2,364. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed up 153 points at 74.83 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls today
regained the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
August high of 77.07 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 71.59 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 75.31 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support
is seen at 74.00 cents and then at today’s low of 73.30
cents and then at 72.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November orange juice closed up 370 points at $1.1195
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering and bargain hunting. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage in November FCOJ. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
last week’s high of $1.1570. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the May low of $1.0230.
First resistance is seen at $1.1250 and then at $1.1400.
First support is seen at $1.1000 and then at today’s low of
$1.0775. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September lumber futures closed down $8.00 at $300.70
today. More profit taking from recent gains was seen today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $296.70. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $317.00. First resistance is seen at 
$303.20 and then at $305.00. First support is seen at
$300.00 and then at $296.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $3.40 an ounce
at $1,622.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart, whereby today’s daily high was higher and
low was lower than Friday’s trading range. The choppy,
sideways and range-bound trading action continues as it has
for the past two months. The gold market bulls and bears
are on an overall level near-term technical playing field.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
June high of $1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $1,559.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,624.50 and then at the August
high of $1,629.70. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,611.80 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.588 an ounce at
$28.595 today. Prices closed near the session high today,
hit a fresh two-month high and scored a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. Today’s price action could
be the beginning of a bullish upside breakout from a
sideways and choppy trading range on the daily bar chart.
Silver bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field, but bulls do have fresh upside
momentum. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June
high of $29.915 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of $26.88. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.645 and then at
$29.00. Next support is seen at $28.445 and then at
$28.335. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 450 points at 337.45
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 345.70 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 325.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at
last week’s high of 342.45 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 335.35 cents and then at last week’s low of
333.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: October crude oil closed down $0.14 a barrel
at $96.19 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh three-month high. Crude oil bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old
price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above major psychological
resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $92.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $96.83 and then
at $97.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $95.32
and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

October heating oil closed down 26 points at $3.0979 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.2000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.9600. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $3.1250 and then at last week’s high of
$3.1337. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0841
and then at $3.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 50 points at
$2.8732 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $2.6750. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.8882 and then at
last week’s high of $2.9089. First support is seen at
$2.8500 and then at $2.8250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

October natural gas closed up 5.2 cents at $2.816 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering. Prices late last week hit a six-week low. Bulls
are fading and need to show more power soon. Bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is
seen at $2.85 and then at last week’s high of $2.884. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $2.727 and then at
$2.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 25 points at 1.2349 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and saw short covering. The
Euro bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at the July low of 1.2051. First resistance for the
Euro lies at last week’s high of 1.2390 and then at the
August high of 1.2450. Next support is seen at 1.2300 and
then at last week’s low of 1.2258. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 23 points at 1.2597
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering after hitting a fresh five-week low early
on. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but are fading and need to show more power soon.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the July high of 1.2854.
Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.2500. First resistance
is seen at 1.2623 and then at 1.2668. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1.2556 and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 17 points at 1.0282
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage in the Swissy. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0400. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the July low of 1.0040. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.0319 and then
at the August high of 1.0366. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0242 and then at last week’s low of
1.0209. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 33 points at
1.0427 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the August
contract high of 1.0578. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen at
1.0500 and then at the contract high of 1.0578. Next
support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0383 and then at
1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 2 points at 1.0110
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the April high of 1.0168. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9950. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 1.0135 and then at 1.0168.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0093 and then at
last week’s low of 1.0052. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The September British pound closed up 16 points at 1.5706
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
some short covering. Bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Prices are confined to a well-defined
trading range, but are now in the upper boundary of it.
Prices are also in a gentle four-week-old uptrend on the
daily chart. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5456. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of 1.5744 and then at 1.5773. First support is seen at
1.5635 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 13 points at
82.52 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage amid choppy trading conditions. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the August high of 83.61. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the August
low of 82.06. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 82.76
and then at last week’s high of 82.96. First support is
seen at last week’s low of 82.25 and then at 82.06.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 5/32 at 146 1/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid
short covering. Bulls have faded badly recently as prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
For the first time in months the bulls have lost their
near-term technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 144 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 149
9/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 146 10/32
and then at 146 16/32. First support is seen at last week’s
low of 145 4/32 and then at 145 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 1.5 (32nds) at 132.17.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
For the first time in months the bulls have lost their
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s high of 133.27.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
131.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
132.22.0 and then at 133.00.0. First support is seen at
132.10.0 and then at last week’s low of 132.05.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. Stock index bulls still have solid upside
near-term technical momentum on their side.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 4.00 at 2,780.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh 4.5-month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
April high of 2,791.50. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the August low of 2,600.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,784.25 and then at 2,791.50.
First support is seen today’s low of 2,767.00 and then at
2,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 0.70 at 1,414.50.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-
month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of
1,419.60. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
August low of 1,350.00. First resistance is seen at
1,419.60 and then at 1,425.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,409.70 and then at 1,400.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed down 12 points at 13,235 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August low of 12,730.
First resistance in the Dow lies at last week’s high of
13,255 and then at 13,280. First support is seen at 13,200
and then at 13,125. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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