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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 22

Aug 23, 2012

Wednesday Evening, August 22-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $0.15 at
$124.47 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were
pressured by the recent sharp gains in corn futures prices
this week. The cattle bulls are fading and are on a level
near-term technical playing field with the bears. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $127.22. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the August low of
$123.60. First resistance is seen at $125.00 and then at
this week’s high of $125.55. First support is seen at
today’s low of $124.25 and then at $124.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed up $0.62 at $143.02 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering. Feeder cattle bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$145.95. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $141.00. First resistance is seen at $143.50 and
then at this week’s high of $144.10. First support is seen
at today’s low of $142.00 and then at $141.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

October lean hogs closed down $2.62 at $73.17 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and careened to a fresh
contract low. Soaring feed costs have pressured the hog
futures market, too. Hog bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $76.45.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $72.00.
First resistance is seen at $74.00 and then at $74.50.
First support is seen at today’s contract low of $73.10 and
then at $72.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 5 1/2 cents at
$8.33 1/4 in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range
and saw some mild profit-taking pressure today. Focus is on
the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour, which has so far found
dour crop conditions. The corn bulls maintain the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside momentum this week. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $8.49. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $7.86. First resistance for December corn is seen at
this week’s high of $8.40 and then at $8.49. First support
is seen at today’s low of $8.28 1/4 and then at $8.21 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

November soybeans were down 5 cents at $17.27 1/2 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and poked
to another fresh contract high today. Focus is on the Pro
Farmer crop tour this week, and early results are dour for
the crops. Soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing November prices above psychological resistance at
$18.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $16.41. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $17.34 1/4
and then at $17.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
$17.15 1/2 and then at $17.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
9.0.

December soybean meal was down $6.10 at $518.40 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. Profit
taking was featured. Prices Tuesday hit a contract high.
Meal bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a solid 2.5-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $535.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$497.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$525.80 and then at Tuesday’s contract high of $527.90.
First support is seen at today’s low of $515.80 and then at
$512.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December bean oil was up 75 points at 56.97 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high and hit a
fresh four-month high today. Spreaders were unwinding long
meal, short oil spreads today. Bean oil bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the April high
of 58.45 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at 57.00 cents and then at 57.50 cents.
First support is seen at 56.50 cents and then at 56.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was down 6 cents at $9.16 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw
profit taking. Wheat bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at the July high of $9.53
1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $8.57
1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $9.26
1/4 and then at $9.33 1/4. First support lies at today’s
low of $9.11 1/4 and then at $9.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 5 cents at $9.27 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $9.57 1/4. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $8.74 1/4. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $9.36 1/2 and
then at $9.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
$9.22 1/4 and then at $9.13 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0

December oats were down 1 1/2 cents at $3.95 1/2 today in
late trading. Prices were near mid-range and saw mild
profit taking. Oats bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and are following the major grains.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $3.65. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the August high of $3.98 1/2. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.91 1/4 and then at $3.87.
First resistance is seen at $3.98 1/2 and then at $4.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 12 points at 19.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Short
covering in a bear market was seen today. Reports of a big
Brazilian sugar crop are bearish for the market. Sugar
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage and
still have downside momentum on their side. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
20.70 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the June low of 19.24 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 20.18 cents and then at 20.50 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 19.75 cents and then
at 19.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December coffee closed down 185 points at 162.35 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 172.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
153.70 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 164.05 cents and then at this week’s high of 166.60
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 161.05 cents
and then at last week’s low of 160.25 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

December cocoa closed down $62 at $2,371 a ton. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh three-
week low. Cocoa bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but did fade today. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the August
high of $2,501. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen at
$2,400 and then at today’s high of $2,440. First support is
seen at the August low of $2,364 and then at $2,350.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed down 33 points at 76.97 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high. Cotton bulls still
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of 73.30 cents. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of 77.49 cents and then at
78.00 cents. First support is seen at 76.00 cents and then
at today’s low of 74.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November orange juice closed up 510 points at $1.2050
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
six-week high. Bulls have gained fresh upside momentum this
week as it’s the tropical storm season in the Atlantic, and
storms are brewing. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage in November FCOJ. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.2275 and then at $1.2400. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.1805 and then at $1.1600. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed down $5.70 at $291.20 today.
More profit taking from recent gains was seen today. Bulls
are fading and need to show fresh power soon. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $290.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s contract high of
$308.00. First resistance is seen at $294.00 and then at
$295.00. First support is seen at $290.00 and then at
$288.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $3.10 an ounce
at $1,639.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and did hit a fresh 3.5-month high early on. Bulls
have gained fresh upside technical momentum this week as
prices are on the verge of a bullish upside “breakout” from
the choppy and sideways trading range that has been in
place on the daily chart for nearly three months. The gold
market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $1,650.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the August low of $1,586.30. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,647.60 and then at $1,650.00.
First support is seen at $1,633.30 and then at $1,625.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

September silver futures closed up $0.027 an ounce at
$29.445 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again
today and hit another fresh 2.5-month high. This week’s
price action in silver has produced a big and bullish
upside breakout from a sideways and choppy trading range
that had been in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and have
upside momentum. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of $29.915 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $27.50. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $29.595 and then at
$29.915. Next support is seen at today’s low of $29.17 and
then at $29.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 10 points at 345.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of 355.65 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of 328.85 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 347.45 cents and then
at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
342.90 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: October crude oil closed up $0.50 a barrel at
$97.34 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and closed at a fresh 3.5-month high close. Crude oil bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-
week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $92.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $97.85 and then at $99.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $96.26 and then at this week’s low of
$95.32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

October heating oil closed up 88 points at $3.1405 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh 3.5-month high close. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.2000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.9600. First resistance lies at this
week’s high of $3.1491 and then at $3.1750. First support
is seen at today’s low of $3.1124 and then at $3.1000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 361 points at
$2.9429 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit
a fresh 4.5-month high today. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.6750. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2.9440 and then at $2.9750. First support is seen
at $2.9089 and then at today’s low of $2.8849. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

October natural gas closed up 6.6 cents at $2.875 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and more saw
short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is
seen at $2.95 and then at $3.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.81 and then at last week’s low of $2.727.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 48 points at 1.2518 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit another fresh six-
week high. The Euro bulls and bears are now back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Prices are in a four-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2245. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2543 and
then at 1.2600. Next support is seen at 1.2500 and then at
today’s low of 1.2434. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 126 points at 1.2745
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
heavy short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and regained upside
momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high
of 1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 1.2556. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.2778 and then at 1.2800. First support is seen at 1.2700
and then at 1.2650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 41 points at 1.0427
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit
another fresh six-week high today. The market saw more
short covering and bargain hunting. The bulls and bears are
now on a level near-term technical playing field. Prices
are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0201. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0445 and then at
1.0500. First support is seen at 1.0400 and then at today’s
low of 1.0356. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 25 points at
1.0479 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the August
contract high of 1.0578. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen at
1.0500 and then at the contract high of 1.0578. Next
support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0383 and then at
1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed down 22 points at
1.0083 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
More profit taking was featured. Bulls still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the April high of 1.0168. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9950. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.0108 and then at this week’s high
of 1.0155. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0047
and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The September British pound closed up 87 points at 1.5864
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh 3.5-month high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage and gained more upside momentum today. Prices
this week have seen a bullish upside breakout from a well-
defined trading range. Prices are also in a gentle four-
week-old uptrend on the daily chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at this week’s low of 1.5676. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5872 and then at 1.5900. First
support is seen at 1.5800 and then at 1.5750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 37 points at
81.56 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and it a
fresh two-month low today. The bears have gained the slight
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 83.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the June low of 81.39.
Next resistance lies at 82.00 and then at today’s high of
82.13. First support is seen at today’s low of 81.47 and
then at 81.38. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 18/32 at 147 28/32
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
more short covering and buying interest on fresh ideas
there will be QE3, following today’s FOMC minutes. Bulls
regained the slight near-term technical advantage today.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
144 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of 149 9/32. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 147 28/32 and then at 148 even. First
support is seen at 147 even and then at today’s low of 146
12/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 25.5 (32nds) at 133.13.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls
regained the slight near-term technical advantage today.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 133.27.5. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 132.05.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 133.14.0 and then at 133.27.5.
First support is seen at 133.00.0 and then at 132.24.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today on some more profit taking from recent gains.
Stock index bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed
members believe that further quantitative easing of
monetary policy will be required if the U.S. economy does
not show improvement soon. The precious metals were boosted
to their daily highs on the news, albeit in modest fashion,
while the U.S. dollar index sold off to its daily low. It
was not widely expected the FOMC minutes would reveal
anything new that would further suggest another round of
quantitative easing of U.S. monetary policy is right around
the corner. But the market place was a bit surprised by the
meeting minutes that hinted such is indeed the case. Most
market watchers are now looking ahead to next week’s annual
Jackson Hole Federal Reserve confab, which will feature
remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. It’s either at that
time or at the mid-September FOMC meeting that many hope
the Fed announces a new monetary stimulus plan—nicknamed
QE3.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 9.00 at 2,783.25.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,850.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,650.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 2,802.50 and then at 2,825.00. First
support is seen today’s low of 2,759.00 and then at
2,743.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.20 at 1,412.70.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,450.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the August low of 1,350.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,424.60 and then
at 1,435.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,404.50 and then at 1,388.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 39 points at 13,160 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 13,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August low of 12,730.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,188
and then at 13,250. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,100 and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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