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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 30

Aug 31, 2012

Thursday Evening, August 30-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.10 at
$125.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw a
pause from big gains seen Wednesday. The key outside
markets were in a bearish posture for the cattle market
today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil
prices were lower. Bulls still have some upside technical
momentum and are on a level near-term playing field with
the bears. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the August high of $127.22. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $123.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$125.95 and then at $126.45. First support is seen at
$125.00 and then at $124.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed up $0.10 at $144.90 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today in quiet
trading. Feeder cattle bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the August
high of $145.95. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at $141.00. First resistance is seen at
$145.95 and then at $146.50. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $143.90 and then at $143.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.45 at $74.15 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. More short covering in a bear
market was featured today. Hog bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, my bias is that the
downside is limited for hog futures at present price
levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $75.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $74.50 and then at $75.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $73.70 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 2 cents at $8.11
1/2 in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range.
Gains were limited by bearish outside markets—firmer U.S.
dollar index and lower crude oil prices—and by a poor
weekly USDA export sales report. Indeed, focus in the corn
market is less on the supply and more on what record high
prices have done to demand for corn. The corn bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the contract
high of $8.49. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the last “reaction low” on the daily
chart, at $7.86. First resistance for December corn is seen
at this week’s high of $8.18 and then at $8.25. First
support is $8.00 and then at this week’s low of $7.93 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

November soybeans were up 8 1/2 cents at $17.61 1/2 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session high and hit a fresh contract high today. Soybean
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices
above psychological resistance at $18.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $17.01. First resistance is seen at today’s
contract high of $17.71 1/4 and then at $17.80. First
support is seen at $17.50 and then at today’s low of $17.35
1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

December soybean meal was up $4.70 at $534.70 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and hit
a fresh contract high today. Meal bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $545.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$501.00. First resistance comes in at today’s contract high
of $538.90 and then at $540.00. First support is seen at
$531.90 and then at $530.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

December bean oil was up 1 point at 57.32 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. Bean
oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 58.45 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
54.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 57.28 cents and
then at this week’s high of 57.85 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 56.95 cents and then at 56.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 1 1/4 cents at $9.07 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Wheat bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Still, the
choppiness and sideways trading at higher price levels,
amid some higher volatility, is a warning signal of a
topping process. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at the July high of $9.53 1/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of $8.57 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.14 1/2 and
then at last week’s high of $9.26 1/4. First support lies
at today’s low of $8.97 1/4 and then at $8.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 1 cent at $9.23 in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$9.57 1/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the August low of $8.74 1/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.31 and then at last week’s high of $9.36
1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $9.10 3/4 and
then at $9.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December oats were down 3/4 cent at $3.95 1/4 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range and are back near the
recent highs. Oats bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.65. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $4.00.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.92 and then at
$3.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.98
and then at $4.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 5 points at 19.81 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the sugar market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were lower. Sugar bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 20.70 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
19.24 cents. First resistance is seen at 20.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 20.10 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 19.67 cents and then at this week’s low
of 19.45 cents and then at 19.24 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

December coffee closed down 295 points at 163.70 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the coffee market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were lower. Coffee bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 170.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of 160.25 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 165.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 168.35 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 162.50 cents and then at 160.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December cocoa closed up $39 at $2,613 a ton. Prices closed
near the session high today and hit another fresh 9.5-month
high. Cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a
market top is close at hand. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,500.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,620 and then
at $2,650. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,566
and then at $2,550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

December cotton closed up 29 points at 76.94 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Cotton bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 73.30 cents. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 77.28 cents and then at the
August high of 77.49 cents and then at 78.00 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 75.90 cents and then at
this week’s low of 75.11 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

November orange juice closed up 230 points at $1.1795
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more
short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Trading remains choppy and
volatile. Traders will continue to watch for any fresh
storms brewing in the Atlantic. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at last week’s
high of $1.2275. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the August low of $1.0350. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1.1855 and then
at $1.2000. First support is seen at $1.1600 and then at
$1.1450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed up $1.40 at $284.70 today.
Prices closed near the session high on short covering.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $276.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $296.60. First
resistance is seen at $286.00 and then at $288.00. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $282.80 and then at
$280.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $4.60 an ounce
at $1,658.30 today. Prices closed near mid-range today.
More profit taking and chart consolidation were featured.
The key “outside markets” were again bearish for the gold
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude
oil prices were lower. Gold prices are in a choppy, two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold market
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
bull flag may be forming on the daily bar chart. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at $1,633.30. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,666.70 and then at
$1,672.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,652.30 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
6.0

December silver futures closed down $0.427 an ounce at
$30.495 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw more profit-taking pressure. The key “outside
markets” were again bearish for the silver market today, as
the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Silver bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A bear flag may be forming on the
daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $31.50 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $30.97 and then at this week’s high
of $31.315. Next support is seen at today’s low of $30.265
and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 65 points at 344.25 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the copper market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were lower. Copper bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 355.65 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 328.85 cents. First resistance is seen at 347.30
cents and then at today’s high of 349.50 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 342.80 cents and then
at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: October crude oil closed down $0.79 a barrel
at $94.71 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today,
hit a two-week low, and were pressured by a firmer U.S.
dollar index. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. A two-month-old price uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls need to
show some fresh power soon. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $92.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $95.60 and then at $96.37. First
support is seen at today’s low of $93.95 and then at
$93.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

October heating oil closed up 176 points at $3.1400 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.2500. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.0000. First resistance
lies at $3.1500 and then at last week’s high of $3.1685.
First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1214 and then at
$3.1000 and then at $3.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 43 points at
$2.9125 today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw more
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of $3.0402.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $2.8000. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2.9307 and then at $2.9500. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $2.8913 and then at
$2.8600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

October natural gas closed up 7.3 cents at $2.758 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage as a four-week-old downtrend line is
still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $2.50. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2.792 and then
at $2.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.637
and then at this week’s low of $2.61. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 16 points at 1.2527 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw some more
profit taking. The Euro bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.2700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2270. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2580 and
then at last week’s high of 1.2607. Next support is seen at
1.2500 and then at this week’s low of 1.2484. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The December Japanese yen closed up 8 points at 1.2729
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. A bull flag
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, but any bullish
upside breakout will need to occur soon. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the July high of 1.2851. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the August low of 1.2565. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.2756 and then at last week’s
high of 1.2788. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.2698 and then at 1.2675. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 13 points at 1.0441
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw some
more profit taking. The Swissy bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0600. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 1.0499 and then at 1.0525. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0402 and then at
1.0370. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 57 points at
1.0202 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh
five-week low today. Bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading and need to
show fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
last week’s high of 1.0430. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0100. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0224 and then at this week’s high of
1.0301 and then at 1.0350. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0180 and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 36 points at
1.0054 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on
some more profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the April high of 1.0136. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August low of .9890.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0086 and then
at 1.0136. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0046
and then at last week’s low of 1.0026. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The December British pound closed down 40 points at 1.5792
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
1.5684. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5871
and then at last week’s high of 1.5907. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5768 and then at this week’s low
of 1.5747. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 13 points at 82.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session  high today and saw
more short covering. The bears still have the slight near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 83.25. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 81.00. Next resistance lies at this
week’s high of 82.13 and then at 82.37. First support is
seen today’s low of 81.76 and then at at last week’s low of
81.52 and then at 81.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 18/32 at 150 11/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three-
week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage as Bernanke’s Friday morning speech in Jackson
Hole is eagerly awaited. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 145 23/32.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 152
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 150 23/32
and then at 151 even. First support is seen at 150 even and
then at today’s low of 149 22/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 10.5 (32nds) at 133.02.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-week high. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 133.16.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 132.02.5. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 133.07.0 and then at 133.15.0. First support is
seen at today’s low of 132.22.5 and then at this week’s low
of 132.11.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today. Stock index bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but did fade a bit today. The
world market place awaits Bernanke’s Friday morning remarks
at the annual Fed confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Presently, many veteran market watchers, including this
one, reckon odds are about 50-50, or just a bit higher,
that the Fed will announce a fresh monetary stimulus
package at Jackson Hole, or at the FOMC meeting in
September. Also, next week’s monthly European Central Bank
meeting (September 6) will also be an important central
bank event. Odds are higher, yet, that the ECB will
announce a fresh stimulus package at next week’s meeting.
Fresh stimulus packages for either the U.S. or EU economies
would be at least initially commodity-market-bullish, as
well as stock-market-bullish. In overnight news, China
Premiere Wen Jiabo said his country will continue to buy
European debt, which gave some support to the Euro
currency. An Italian bond auction fetched lower yields than
last month, which hints there is some growing optimism the
EU debt crisis is at least stabilizing. There was fresh,
dour economic data coming out of leading EU country Germany
overnight, as unemployment claims rose and business
confidence declined to a 1.5-year low.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 27.00 at
2,754.25. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the August high of
2,802.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
2,650.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,782.50 and then at this week’s high of 2,795.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,750.25 and then at
2,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 10.40 at 1,396.80.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the August high of 1,424.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the August low of 1,350.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,407.40 and
then at this week’s high of 1,415.90. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1,395.40 and then at 1,375.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 102 points at 12,982 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
four-week low. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the August high of 13,305. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of 12,730. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,035 and
then at 13,125. First support is seen at today’s low of
12,965 and then at 12,900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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